Us Midterms · resolved market
Will the Senate confirm Ed Martin before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e55652f982adaa736c6825a7a6038a8429dc3e279f801fcc698b9f4bad77b51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16ff…b518backed Yes | 60c | 31,307$18,784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,784.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0412…3734backed No | 40c | 31,307$12,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,784.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 9,155$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 132 | 0.8%1 W · 131 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…78c2backed Yes | 1c | 6,964$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.83 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 5,133$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,883$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 497 | 11.5%57 W · 440 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed No | 72c | 880.12$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.63 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…559cbacked Yes | 23c | 341.09$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +115.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 6c | 319.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddd8…624bbacked Yes | 17c | 201.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa075…7d2bbacked Yes | 65c | 192.56$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 21c | 131.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 64c | 108.21$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.66 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 78.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 79c | 59.25$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa13…9c9abacked No | 38c | 53.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 54c | 51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 70c | 42.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 37c | 31.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa915…879dbacked Yes | 76c | 25.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 52c | 23.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.