NFL · resolved market
Will the Raiders draft Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0621303c4343e2e77028c55b0f8d9a6ffd0b23fcdde736ad655f4bf83fbeb65d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,015
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6337…1ebbbacked Yes | 25c | 2,895$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.65 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed No | 80c | 1,326$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.32 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed No | 67c | 1,276$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.5 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x401a…d730backed Yes | 48c | 1,025$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.73 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 330 | 47.9%158 W · 172 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 2c | 584.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.61 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +5.3wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +630%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…8b82backed No | 70c | 505$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes | 38c | 350$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.1 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 8c | 317.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1977…32e8backed Yes | 25c | 278.77$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.28 | 199 | 48.2%96 W · 103 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…f2ddbacked No | 70c | 250.66$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.2 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe71d…78cebacked No | 66c | 244.55$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…168abacked Yes | 9c | 229.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 55c | 219.53$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9401…e9ffbacked No | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 12cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Yes | 13c | 195.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b1…2c74backed No | 78c | 175$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 77c | 161$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d2…f38bbacked Yes | 50c | 140.82$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes | 40c | 136.78$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.05 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 29c | 135.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x548f…d413backed Yes | 48c | 116.3$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8806…3e7ebacked Yes | 22c | 109$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 71c | 105.95$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 62c | 105.87$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.65 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 104.87$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa47b…bae9backed Yes | 40c | 101.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed No | 72c | 101.01$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 10c | 100.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f9…84e6backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.24 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58b0…f9a8backed No | 77c | 97.19$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed No | 53c | 86.47$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.33 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Yes | 47c | 81.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 187 | 44.9%84 W · 103 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 77 | 18.2%14 W · 63 L | -11.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x831b…eed5backed No | 55c | 72.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00e2…d56abacked No | 76c | 72$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…a39abacked Yes | 22c | 66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…bdf5backed No | 35c | 65.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 45c | 60.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 293 | 56%164 W · 129 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4b…5f8bbacked Yes | 56c | 53.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf90b…d0e5backed Yes | 22c | 49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x732d…2787backed No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca3…53cebacked Yes | 74c | 32.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 31c | 31.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7364…d44ebacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4a…0502backed Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad3d…c194backed No | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1698…5cb3backed No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Raiders draft Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft?this page
- Will Shedeur Sanders not be drafted in the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will another team draft Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will the Browns draft Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft?Yes won
- Will the Giants draft Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will the Jets draft Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will the Patriots draft Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will the Saints draft Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will the Steelers draft Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.