NFL · resolved market
Will the Steelers draft Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddee934de31c3dfd2220d9602b93c0ad1d176fe47c6822764de91a118402035b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,110
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked No | 50c | 16,165$8,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,075.07 | 176 | 48.9%86 W · 90 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…5effbacked Yes | 49c | 14,874$7,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,312.72 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…bdf5backed No | 67c | 3,193$2,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.79 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…1ebbbacked Yes | 47c | 2,322$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084.52 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401a…d730backed Yes | 31c | 1,619$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.75 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…580fbacked Yes | 29c | 1,009$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.29 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9401…e9ffbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 12cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 30c | 1,000$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…d88cbacked Yes | 17c | 318.65$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.93 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +155%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 40c | 249.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.48 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Yes | 24c | 155.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb907…63f2backed Yes | 22c | 150.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6a…4846backed No | 64c | 145.17$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.26 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 69cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7b76backed No | 61c | 143.76$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.54 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed No | 61c | 138.59$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.59 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes | 27c | 137.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Yes | 40c | 126.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 60c | 106.13$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed Yes | 44c | 104$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed No | 77c | 99.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 187 | 44.9%84 W · 103 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9c…b07ebacked Yes | 51c | 92.62$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b0…f9a8backed No | 76c | 75.67$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac0b…1077backed Yes | 45c | 71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 66c | 59.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 60c | 57.01$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7364…d44ebacked No | 75c | 54.54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Yes | 34c | 49.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9325…a85abacked Yes | 65c | 48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +159.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10a7…c0debacked No | 61c | 44.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 44.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ae…2a5fbacked No | 51c | 40.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b05…bcfcbacked No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53de…77a1backed Yes | 31c | 39.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae2…5dc1backed No | 65c | 38.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 31cpaid | +194.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa26…2f53backed No | 55c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…522dbacked No | 60c | 26.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…01aabacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x548f…d413backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 73c | 14.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Steelers draft Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft?this page
- Will Shedeur Sanders not be drafted in the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will another team draft Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will the Browns draft Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft?Yes won
- Will the Giants draft Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will the Jets draft Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will the Patriots draft Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will the Raiders draft Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will the Saints draft Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.