Movies · resolved market
Will "Hacks" win Best Cast in a Comedy Series at the 2025 SAG Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x520bec7d2ae64e84241d83777d64623bb0b837318129533d6f19d3813c58019f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $194,378
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $194,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $194,378 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9056…df79backed No | 43c | 96,500$41,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55,005 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…2737backed Yes | 57c | 96,500$55,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55,005 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 61c | 168.23$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.05 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0b…94ddbacked No | 21c | 152$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a80…a2e9backed No | 21c | 150$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1232…f91bbacked Yes | 79c | 127$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed84…c47ebacked Yes | 79c | 121$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…5680backed Yes | 70c | 115$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c3…c245backed No | 21c | 110$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed No | 33c | 101.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 16cpaid | +416.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 42c | 101.34$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 23c | 81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.37 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7a…849abacked No | 21c | 59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…c3ddbacked Yes | 30c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 50c | 43.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa23d…8dddbacked Yes | 79c | 39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…25c7backed Yes | 79c | 32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbe…01ecbacked Yes | 54c | 30.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0b…2305backed No | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ac2ebacked No | 47c | 29.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b22…dd1ebacked Yes | 79c | 29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x801b…7e11backed Yes | 79c | 29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9c…8bffbacked Yes | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a58…d360backed Yes | 79c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2794…62d3backed Yes | 54c | 22.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x582f…7fadbacked No | 48c | 22.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…c659backed No | 48c | 21.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d3…c149backed Yes | 56c | 20.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcec…d792backed Yes | 79c | 16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…a673backed Yes | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56e1…010fbacked Yes | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…2d74backed Yes | 79c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef8f…f1d3backed Yes | 79c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Hacks" win Best Cast in a Comedy Series at the 2025 SAG Awards?this page
- Will "Only Murders in the Building" win Best Cast in a Comedy Series at the 2025 SAG Awards?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.