Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63175fef7cdb88dbd028083cc3395422aecae12a971ea57042d7f4b6cd5789c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,281
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,617
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,281 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 6c | 4,500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,229.99 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9099backed Yes | 30c | 2,559$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,797.24 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 1c | 2,130$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe20…2042backed Yes | 6c | 1,670$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,570.46 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 7c | 1,518$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,412.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +431.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 7c | 962.77$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.95 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +51%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 7c | 941.89$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.78 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9f…5ee2backed No | 44c | 755.39$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed No | 61c | 730$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…50c7backed Yes | 6c | 652.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.14 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f3…d859backed Yes | 48c | 515$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.85 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 472$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.02 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…45cdbacked Yes | 7c | 441.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.67 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +333.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1226…71a2backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.38per pick | 28cpaid | +370.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63de…a49bbacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +900%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 70c | 252.38$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.79 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 33c | 214.49$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.49 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 18cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 44c | 200$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.25 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 16c | 182$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 55c | 140$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.9 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd602…0105backed Yes | 10c | 138$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.2 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x132c…c285backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +400%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked No | 68c | 91$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.47 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 48cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe896…edd1backed Yes | 66c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…f0afbacked Yes | 21c | 72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked Yes | 48c | 35.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 33c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff71…bf67backed No | 60c | 25.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…521cbacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.