Earnings · resolved market
Will Roblox (RBLX) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x328b085c81fad69bbe0da269441f019207175ddd63faffcc812aff93c1d34278
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,466
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,466 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 17c | 2,880$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.28 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed Yes | 74c | 1,046$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.08 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 25c | 888.37$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1693…974ebacked Yes | 75c | 796.21$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.21 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 10c | 681.21$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.12 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 75c | 665.72$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.37 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 28c | 600$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b5…e5eebacked No | 35c | 554.56$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.25 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbea…7662backed No | 14c | 420.38$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 68c | 367.26$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.06 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 22c | 341.23$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.61 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dff…1f35backed Yes | 74c | 325.88$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +91.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…78e9backed No | 24c | 318.03$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed No | 35c | 305.88$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.69 | 90 | 16.7%15 W · 75 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…9a10backed No | 11c | 299.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…4f17backed No | 25c | 299.81$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.66 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…04e4backed No | 35c | 289.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 22c | 270.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.47 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf23b…4957backed Yes | 70c | 264.83$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.54 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 24c | 264.76$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.51 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -18.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed No | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10bb…d49dbacked Yes | 70c | 184.75$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.43 | 102 | 72.5%74 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x718a…5d86backed Yes | 75c | 173$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.87 | 47 | 74.5%35 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd8…372bbacked Yes | 79c | 170.13$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…e4e1backed No | 24c | 149.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7837…1d97backed No | 26c | 134.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x905a…75dabacked Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 72cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a0…11efbacked Yes | 77c | 129.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc51a…2289backed Yes | 77c | 129.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf006…1b00backed Yes | 77c | 129.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d8…ad91backed Yes | 71c | 127.79$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…c59dbacked Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 18c | 107.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f8…6620backed Yes | 70c | 86.2$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 25c | 80.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 23c | 78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 76c | 77.08$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9475…d208backed No | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa835…b8dbbacked No | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf274…2b66backed No | 33c | 72.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked No | 28c | 72.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5817…9306backed Yes | 72c | 71.25$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 61c | 67.9$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x903c…57d8backed No | 30c | 67.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00e4…7413backed Yes | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 79cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 73c | 64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…8bdebacked No | 26c | 62.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8598…199fbacked Yes | 76c | 60.76$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed No | 25c | 58.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb65…abe8backed No | 26c | 58.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0059…ca38backed Yes | 74c | 54.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +166.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x385b…b3cbbacked Yes | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd5…32f8backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e2…73bebacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed No | 37c | 47.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 27c | 46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecf…c70bbacked Yes | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe55c…8a38backed No | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +182.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked No | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1009…ddeebacked Yes | 76c | 39.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee2…6580backed Yes | 72c | 38.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 80c | 36.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30c0…ebddbacked Yes | 80c | 34.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a4…75c1backed Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d62…fc71backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 40 | 87.5%35 W · 5 L | +7.6wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4607…7811backed Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x699d…4260backed Yes | 72c | 27.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed Yes | 71c | 26.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…c706backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 74cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x811d…371bbacked Yes | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe36a…2aaebacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -33%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…d8cdbacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42ce…8aacbacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb283…7019backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0a…9229backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 115 | 66.1%76 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Yes | 79c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecca…6a15backed Yes | 76c | 18.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…6aaebacked Yes | 70c | 17.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.