Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump nominate Robert Lighthizer for Commerce Secretary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc48a07993d7072b21aa35e297efc0b6799932c6bd027c3f7f19b7661bc938e93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,135
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,110
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,135 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 0c | 10,046$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 12c | 3,927$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.3 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d15…5398backed Yes | 13c | 3,313$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed Yes | 14c | 3,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 13c | 1,617$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.37 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…dee1backed Yes | 13c | 1,606$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.63 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a97…0fc7backed Yes | 17c | 1,295$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.04 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e96…9971backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01f7…02dfbacked Yes | 7c | 997.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.26 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 12cpaid | +818.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 78c | 978.45$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.75 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 2c | 920$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d1…d864backed Yes | 17c | 780.46$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes | 25c | 732$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.5 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 72c | 705$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.93 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 600$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed Yes | 26c | 599.52$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Yes | 17c | 597.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 10c | 501$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5293…4b34backed Yes | 66c | 432$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.22 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 16c | 431.04$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.57 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 14c | 312.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd8…372bbacked Yes | 54c | 296.8$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.38 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 36c | 291.67$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed No | 65c | 202.04$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.57 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…cd9fbacked Yes | 27c | 200$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 7c | 179.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6e…5727backed No | 71c | 146.98$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a70…1cb6backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 14c | 77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 75c | 77$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 98 | 29.6%29 W · 69 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 23c | 55.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 80c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…93a4backed Yes | 33c | 33.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump nominate Robert Lighthizer for Commerce Secretary?this page
- Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Commerce Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Linda McMahon for Commerce Secretary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.