TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump nominate Linda McMahon for Commerce Secretary?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$141,179
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$153,824

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,179 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x21d0…ce91backed Yes17c18,922$3,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,176.024126.8%11 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No27c15,574$4,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,412.5535519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes62c10,730$6,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,606.5117225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes69c7,301$5,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,005.975038%19 W · 31 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda2f…baccbacked Yes79c5,188$4,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,074.325721.1%12 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-69%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked Yes78c4,761$3,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,720.1910056%56 W · 44 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2b0…7160backed Yes59c4,000$2,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,360540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+30.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6116…f247backed Yes79c3,000$2,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3701225%3 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+27%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f6e…5727backed Yes76c2,956$2,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,246.485851.7%30 W · 28 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes9c2,423$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.2522347.5%106 W · 117 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2359…f72bbacked Yes76c2,271$1,726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,726.22454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+27.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed No49c2,100$1,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,070.933441.2%14 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-26.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No24c2,095$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,590.8213537.8%51 W · 84 L-0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes47c2,089$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984.879533.7%32 W · 63 L-0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7aa6…47c7backed Yes72c1,899$1,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,362.16650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+21.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes1c1,554$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.311244.8%6 W · 118 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-85.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd93…cbb9backed Yes76c1,500$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,14020%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xac58…b485backed No24c1,500$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,140366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick26cpaid+120.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes11c1,136$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.3318914.3%27 W · 162 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc658…b784backed Yes59c1,100$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.677041.4%29 W · 41 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01f7…02dfbacked No10c1,000$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9002035%7 W · 13 L+4.6wins+0.23per pick12cpaid+818.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes57c861.99$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.6613525.9%35 W · 100 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7124…70c1backed Yes77c800$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6164654.3%25 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0490…c81fbacked No52c690$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.583935.9%14 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-24%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa727…8289backed No22c681.82$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.824216.7%7 W · 35 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-64.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x43ec…4612backed Yes67c675$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.17838.5%30 W · 48 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes72c600$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43016943.2%73 W · 96 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfafc…bc43backed Yes31c566.33$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6367…e938backed No33c556$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.799426.6%25 W · 69 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x02d0…b6abbacked Yes69c362.32$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick39cpaid+49.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x29c9…b44ebacked Yes71c326.76$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-28.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1498…1caebacked No35c285.71$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.711136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick27cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cf3…87b3backed No9c266$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.65834.5%20 W · 38 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-13.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Yes67c250$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1671050%5 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0aae…d826backed Yes70c240.87$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.472347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-25%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No28c235.55$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.7799629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5a90…265dbacked No6c230.27$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.452010%2 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick16cpaid+3.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes67c148.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008643%37 W · 49 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x752e…81c4backed No62c141.6$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.124645.7%21 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d1b…39b9backed No33c133.68$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.57875%6 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+76.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ac9…cf1abacked Yes75c133$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.755234.6%18 W · 34 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-29.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc7c5…4052backed No33c122.85$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.852240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd0d1…7beebacked Yes79c120$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.81136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-37.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7418…cd9fbacked Yes75c117.09$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.821838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-44%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e6a…0ad1backed No34c111$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.26944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick34cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66f6…eb83backed Yes54c104.94$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x422d…5cedbacked Yes78c100$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.35128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.16per pick25cpaid-76.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x706a…ed5bbacked No44c86.84$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.63250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe39d…af66backed Yes68c85$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.731735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick42cpaid+1.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ede…3090backed Yes67c84.15$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67ea…0c8bbacked No49c81.39$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x933b…22f7backed No25c81.17$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.171127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No43c80.05$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.621,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdded…3643backed No49c76.24$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.522100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+70.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66ad…324abacked No50c76.17$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.89250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbea…e2b0backed Yes46c75$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.51154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ee…925bbacked Yes68c73.53$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes51c72.69$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.967441.9%31 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4302…6350backed Yes78c68.76$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.631747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x445b…a19bbacked Yes76c65.79$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8403…3af8backed Yes77c64.94$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd9f2…b4d7backed Yes78c64.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick31cpaid+18.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5446…18f6backed No20c61$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.599142.9%39 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed No35c59.44$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.630319.1%58 W · 245 L-20.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-35.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf2ac…b48abacked Yes53c58.88$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e67…268dbacked No49c58.22$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69a4…bba9backed No36c57.14$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.485655.4%31 W · 25 L+5.6wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc5d6…24aabacked No26c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373417.6%6 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x50a6…31b9backed No22c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392958.6%17 W · 12 L+4.0wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+30.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No25c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.514940.9%61 W · 88 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bae…2e92backed Yes68c50$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349846.9%46 W · 52 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+32.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9bec…951abacked No22c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+54.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x02a2…f9d8backed Yes57c48.26$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.51366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+20.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3978…2f24backed No26c39.86$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.59944.4%44 W · 55 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9f2…535dbacked Yes57c38.23$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcad7…ebebbacked Yes68c36.76$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc962…0aa8backed No52c36.44$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.552100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+67.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7e…4562backed Yes45c35.81$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.229829.6%29 W · 69 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5391…4da4backed Yes62c33.15$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe691…6554backed Yes67c32.04$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ae4…2cdfbacked No49c31.78$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.212100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+76.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed Yes66c31.34$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6312531.2%39 W · 86 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes39c30.37$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.828320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes60c29.24$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5436527.1%99 W · 266 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2011…5423backed Yes58c28.69$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.64250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6918…346fbacked Yes52c26.21$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xabb1…83edbacked Yes61c24.52$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick19cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0632…62e9backed Yes58c22.24$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec9f…fb75backed Yes76c22$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.72333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-55%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.