Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump nominate Linda McMahon for Commerce Secretary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59bcc56b6e58bf964c7b37930c2e0163efc33816dcaecddfd1a667a1731f187b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $141,179
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $153,824
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,179 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 17c | 18,922$3,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,176.02 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 27c | 15,574$4,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,412.55 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 62c | 10,730$6,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,606.51 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 69c | 7,301$5,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,005.97 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 79c | 5,188$4,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,074.32 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -69%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 78c | 4,761$3,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,720.19 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…7160backed Yes | 59c | 4,000$2,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,360 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed Yes | 79c | 3,000$2,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,370 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6e…5727backed Yes | 76c | 2,956$2,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,246.48 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 9c | 2,423$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.25 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Yes | 76c | 2,271$1,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,726.2 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…dee1backed No | 49c | 2,100$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,070.93 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 24c | 2,095$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,590.82 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes | 47c | 2,089$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.87 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa6…47c7backed Yes | 72c | 1,899$1,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,362.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 1c | 1,554$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…cbb9backed Yes | 76c | 1,500$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac58…b485backed No | 24c | 1,500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +120.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 11c | 1,136$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.33 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 59c | 1,100$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.67 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01f7…02dfbacked No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 12cpaid | +818.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 57c | 861.99$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.66 | 135 | 25.9%35 W · 100 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7124…70c1backed Yes | 77c | 800$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked No | 52c | 690$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.58 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed No | 22c | 681.82$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.82 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 67c | 675$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.1 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 72c | 600$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfafc…bc43backed Yes | 31c | 566.33$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed No | 33c | 556$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.79 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02d0…b6abbacked Yes | 69c | 362.32$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c9…b44ebacked Yes | 71c | 326.76$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1498…1caebacked No | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed No | 9c | 266$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.6 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Yes | 67c | 250$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…d826backed Yes | 70c | 240.87$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.47 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 28c | 235.55$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.77 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a90…265dbacked No | 6c | 230.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.45 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 67c | 148.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed No | 62c | 141.6$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.12 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1b…39b9backed No | 33c | 133.68$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.57 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked Yes | 75c | 133$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c5…4052backed No | 33c | 122.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.85 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d1…7beebacked Yes | 79c | 120$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…cd9fbacked Yes | 75c | 117.09$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.82 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6a…0ad1backed No | 34c | 111$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.26 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66f6…eb83backed Yes | 54c | 104.94$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x422d…5cedbacked Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.35 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x706a…ed5bbacked No | 44c | 86.84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe39d…af66backed Yes | 68c | 85$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.73 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…3090backed Yes | 67c | 84.15$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67ea…0c8bbacked No | 49c | 81.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x933b…22f7backed No | 25c | 81.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.17 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 43c | 80.05$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.62 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…3643backed No | 49c | 76.24$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66ad…324abacked No | 50c | 76.17$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbea…e2b0backed Yes | 46c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ee…925bbacked Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 51c | 72.69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…6350backed Yes | 78c | 68.76$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.63 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445b…a19bbacked Yes | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8403…3af8backed Yes | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f2…b4d7backed Yes | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed No | 20c | 61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.59 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 35c | 59.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ac…b48abacked Yes | 53c | 58.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e67…268dbacked No | 49c | 58.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…bba9backed No | 36c | 57.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d6…24aabacked No | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a6…31b9backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bec…951abacked No | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02a2…f9d8backed Yes | 57c | 48.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 26c | 39.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f2…535dbacked Yes | 57c | 38.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcad7…ebebbacked Yes | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc962…0aa8backed No | 52c | 36.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 45c | 35.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 98 | 29.6%29 W · 69 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5391…4da4backed Yes | 62c | 33.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe691…6554backed Yes | 67c | 32.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae4…2cdfbacked No | 49c | 31.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 66c | 31.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 39c | 30.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 60c | 29.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2011…5423backed Yes | 58c | 28.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6918…346fbacked Yes | 52c | 26.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb1…83edbacked Yes | 61c | 24.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0632…62e9backed Yes | 58c | 22.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec9f…fb75backed Yes | 76c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump nominate Linda McMahon for Commerce Secretary?this page
- Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Commerce Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Robert Lighthizer for Commerce Secretary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.