Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x091794c52ee2cb56ffb68e099d400b45cabcc2424380448dbe0405a34917aa05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $222,916
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $208,800
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $222,916 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7efa…acbebacked Yes | 5c | 31,000$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,550 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe352…f259backed Yes | 7c | 8,652$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 11c | 4,954$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.26 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9429…1f8dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,691$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7139…0fa4backed Yes | 9c | 4,358$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11f3…d859backed Yes | 3c | 3,311$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.04 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes | 8c | 3,243$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50cf…62d1backed Yes | 10c | 3,105$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,968$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 7c | 2,668$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.61 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed Yes | 5c | 2,550$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.34 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked Yes | 13c | 2,115$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd7…01eebacked Yes | 10c | 1,605$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…b745backed Yes | 12c | 1,600$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x012d…40f1backed Yes | 14c | 1,566$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b32…ddaabacked Yes | 6c | 1,557$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 15c | 1,287$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.69 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 11c | 1,263$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.25 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 3c | 1,210$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 1,100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -94.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f38…dac6backed Yes | 7c | 1,030$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…cb50backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 2c | 997.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff4…5e65backed Yes | 2c | 990.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 871.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 792.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.05 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea0c…bb9bbacked Yes | 4c | 764$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1990…e954backed Yes | 16c | 627.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 19c | 624.43$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.24 | 64 | 12.5%8 W · 56 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42f3…24a0backed Yes | 2c | 539$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b74…778cbacked Yes | 4c | 520$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes | 2c | 469.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c81…c62dbacked Yes | 33c | 450.53$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1338…755bbacked Yes | 4c | 430$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 5c | 381.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7083…b485backed Yes | 5c | 358$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5607…1d7abacked Yes | 15c | 354.12$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc10e…1002backed Yes | 6c | 318.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e9…2e08backed Yes | 14c | 296.62$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 12c | 282$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08df…9eecbacked Yes | 17c | 258.93$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7007…00aabacked Yes | 11c | 250$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x809f…ad08backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x450a…6c09backed Yes | 7c | 213$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…0b68backed Yes | 6c | 207.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x096c…2f8bbacked Yes | 7c | 204$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…f7e0backed Yes | 12c | 202$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f4…89fabacked Yes | 5c | 188$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 11c | 178.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…bd6dbacked Yes | 10c | 134$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 11c | 131.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4cb…6c2abacked Yes | 25c | 130.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4111…0223backed Yes | 10c | 122$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e9…b9bfbacked Yes | 13c | 118.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0174…3d88backed Yes | 13c | 114.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9156…4ad4backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x509d…366cbacked Yes | 11c | 98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb14c…6941backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…82d2backed Yes | 13c | 80.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 13c | 76.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -76%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…482dbacked Yes | 15c | 70$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d42…f9dcbacked Yes | 16c | 69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 18c | 58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 20c | 51.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.37 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +211.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair?this page
- No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30?Yes won
- Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair?No won
- Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair?No won
- Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair?No won
- Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow as next Fed Chair?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.