Fed Rates · resolved market
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23e730eca8e579958f37504f006dd5e02d5d2dd26225f75cde5d2e52be954f46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $413,977
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $448,982
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $413,977 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9c0…67f2backed No | 16c | 80,520$12,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,883.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 3c | 11,892$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.97 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf3…a699backed No | 4c | 5,499$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.4 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 15c | 4,516$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.47 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed No | 12c | 4,102$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.31 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 4c | 3,440$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.48 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -94.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed No | 16c | 3,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7304…0379backed Yes | 71c | 2,249$1,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3a…ee52backed No | 16c | 2,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.99 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed No | 15c | 1,800$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.2 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked No | 5c | 1,458$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.06 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 9c | 1,401$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.98 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 8c | 1,396$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.76 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77d7…6547backed No | 4c | 1,317$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.95 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 6c | 1,189$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.55 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 3c | 1,068$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -76%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 7c | 1,032$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.71 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8948…28d5backed No | 17c | 1,013$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe352…f259backed No | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 75c | 885.46$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.76 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5303…d66ebacked No | 8c | 875$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 26c | 750$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…1b36backed No | 12c | 731$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.44 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 3c | 685.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 8c | 657.45$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.86 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked No | 4c | 609.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1800…d99bbacked No | 7c | 609$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed No | 5c | 600$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6e…99eabacked No | 16c | 600$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6571…9827backed No | 15c | 500$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed No | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e7b…9cd5backed No | 6c | 498.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d37…2f72backed No | 4c | 491.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…06d8backed No | 4c | 491$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a6…da50backed No | 5c | 448$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed No | 23c | 429.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd521…3687backed No | 5c | 401$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…e4bdbacked No | 18c | 367.67$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.18 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed No | 14c | 362.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 17c | 360.55$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.41 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed No | 6c | 353.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 17c | 331.31$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.69 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed No | 11c | 331$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…c91ebacked No | 18c | 322.26$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x799e…ae3bbacked No | 4c | 304$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed83…d308backed No | 7c | 289.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ece…832abacked No | 16c | 284$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b9…d553backed No | 5c | 282$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 18c | 279.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…5977backed No | 5c | 278$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed No | 14c | 271.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae8…89d5backed No | 13c | 266$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0e…49e3backed No | 19c | 265.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a1…49edbacked No | 5c | 264$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9afc…787fbacked No | 5c | 261$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 24c | 250$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 16c | 245.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3059…512bbacked No | 16c | 243$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430d…07f8backed No | 5c | 230.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78f9…3e37backed No | 18c | 228.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b0…f9a8backed No | 16c | 219.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b87…274cbacked No | 14c | 213.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…1518backed No | 14c | 203$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…5871backed No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d8…9c51backed No | 6c | 199.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…ef5dbacked No | 7c | 185$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…18a1backed No | 8c | 161.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dfd…c48bbacked No | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked No | 17c | 139$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb82…2d99backed Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4491…1d77backed No | 9c | 130$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked No | 18c | 122$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf583…7f75backed No | 15c | 114$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ec…6b1bbacked Yes | 77c | 106$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8186…15c2backed No | 16c | 103$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a0…521ebacked No | 18c | 103$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…a729backed No | 12c | 99.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd620…db7bbacked No | 16c | 97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…7f2cbacked No | 16c | 96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd996…c1acbacked No | 27c | 93.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd28…21a9backed No | 19c | 93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb1…36f3backed No | 23c | 88.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 15c | 86.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x434e…8b20backed No | 19c | 86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba8…c6e0backed Yes | 77c | 84.49$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4410…980abacked No | 16c | 83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b9…9aeabacked No | 16c | 82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f65…e2d9backed No | 18c | 81.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8524…7d91backed Yes | 80c | 80.04$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9542…a7b3backed No | 28c | 78.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 13c | 78.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…af7ebacked No | 25c | 75.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0db…bc90backed No | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c48…fb91backed No | 16c | 74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…5fa3backed No | 16c | 73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79a4…f5c7backed No | 16c | 71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…880ebacked No | 25c | 70.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa75a…54ffbacked No | 14c | 70$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30?this page
- Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair?No won
- Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair?No won
- Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair?No won
- Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair?No won
- Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow as next Fed Chair?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.