Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb485c9e39cbb2e3a04d356343b906f81c717e0e6c0f53250afd93bc54b8182e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,213,255
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,217,756
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,213,255 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90fa…2ecdbacked Yes | 1c | 65,723$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9889…3e00backed Yes | 1c | 50,300$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bf…6f28backed Yes | 1c | 36,782$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…9402backed Yes | 1c | 16,300$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 14,987$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.02 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 11,259$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 7,176$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 3c | 4,918$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.66 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 0c | 3,999$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -76%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff4…5e65backed Yes | 1c | 3,528$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ad…a3dabacked Yes | 1c | 3,341$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf595…8153backed Yes | 1c | 2,839$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 1,917$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c81…c62dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,715$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2735…bc8dbacked Yes | 1c | 903.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44eb…c390backed Yes | 1c | 791.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437d…6c11backed Yes | 1c | 694.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair?this page
- No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30?Yes won
- Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair?No won
- Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair?No won
- Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair?No won
- Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow as next Fed Chair?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.