Middle East · resolved market
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed3aa63a2efd82fe52937c45e1e1cb8b4da834831576e4e435d1e5333e011f85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,981,991
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,806,057
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,981,991 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 421 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0faf…ca6abacked Yes | 4c | 74,922$2,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,957.04 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 4c | 44,984$1,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,970.49 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x626d…ff68backed Yes | 6c | 35,723$2,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,122.34 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 8c | 35,345$2,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,724.16 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb065…ccffbacked Yes | 12c | 34,995$4,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,095.61 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2641…b80dbacked Yes | 10c | 34,425$3,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,302.57 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 6c | 30,403$1,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,816.22 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 5c | 29,485$1,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,336.4 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Yes | 15c | 22,493$3,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,372.68 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed Yes | 3c | 22,071$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.16 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 3c | 21,210$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.44 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037e…0c63backed Yes | 6c | 20,984$1,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,211.67 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…cb1ebacked Yes | 0c | 20,662$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 7cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…3307backed Yes | 1c | 19,481$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.76 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8967…1e9bbacked Yes | 10c | 19,000$1,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,950 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…d68fbacked Yes | 1c | 18,143$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.91 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37d1…4e28backed Yes | 7c | 18,063$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,189.93 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.30per pick | 23cpaid | +184.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…e7b1backed Yes | 5c | 18,028$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c37…0631backed Yes | 12c | 17,163$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 6c | 16,289$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.96 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -64%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0301…aa15backed Yes | 13c | 15,565$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…cfa0backed Yes | 8c | 15,388$1,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190.99 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde1d…aba8backed Yes | 9c | 14,243$1,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,343.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d7…673abacked Yes | 15c | 12,790$1,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,907.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…d29ebacked Yes | 4c | 12,497$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.48 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe895…5cccbacked Yes | 8c | 11,670$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db1…46a4backed Yes | 11c | 10,870$1,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,183.2 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…fbb3backed Yes | 2c | 10,840$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc8…c20fbacked Yes | 5c | 10,839$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acc…f86cbacked Yes | 6c | 10,719$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -65%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f5…f1c1backed Yes | 1c | 10,081$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.81 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…e7bfbacked Yes | 9c | 9,876$938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$937.55 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 7c | 9,869$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 87 | 21.8%19 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31fc…4e30backed Yes | 14c | 9,854$1,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,377.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 1c | 9,628$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.77 | 123 | 5.7%7 W · 116 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7256…de57backed Yes | 5c | 9,437$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b8…5201backed Yes | 8c | 9,287$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…f360backed Yes | 8c | 9,033$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x282a…c59fbacked Yes | 7c | 8,941$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b8…b5f0backed Yes | 3c | 8,900$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.8 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90b…15bcbacked Yes | 11c | 8,419$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.53 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb18…f867backed Yes | 6c | 8,359$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.39per pick | 18cpaid | +352.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcd…b6d3backed Yes | 13c | 8,172$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Yes | 9c | 8,115$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d05…9f56backed Yes | 19c | 7,945$1,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,543.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e71…bfa5backed Yes | 13c | 7,817$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…60c8backed Yes | 10c | 7,696$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.81 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab0…1c9cbacked Yes | 12c | 7,674$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$914.52 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…12d9backed Yes | 16c | 7,326$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,197.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbae6…2d92backed Yes | 11c | 6,963$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf4…fdd7backed Yes | 6c | 6,620$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe369…a690backed Yes | 3c | 6,578$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad01…d274backed Yes | 2c | 6,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 6,332$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.81 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 12c | 6,153$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.75 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x82b1…7579backed Yes | 10c | 6,000$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.22 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x277b…31fabacked Yes | 12c | 6,000$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e02…b56dbacked Yes | 3c | 5,925$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d9…4ce3backed Yes | 8c | 5,747$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.76 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 4c | 5,682$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.32 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x117c…495cbacked Yes | 8c | 5,657$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.06 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 20cpaid | +241.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…2172backed Yes | 2c | 5,608$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…46b9backed Yes | 9c | 5,556$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe162…8a81backed Yes | 6c | 5,363$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20d7…7f5cbacked Yes | 11c | 5,194$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.39 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc032…6668backed Yes | 2c | 5,190$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.46 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89c7…3ff0backed Yes | 11c | 5,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf414…67fbbacked Yes | 9c | 5,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…30bebacked Yes | 6c | 5,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c4…0d19backed Yes | 11c | 4,921$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.56 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9389…aaffbacked Yes | 10c | 4,762$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.37 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 6c | 4,682$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.44 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes | 13c | 4,677$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -45%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf81…7defbacked Yes | 1c | 4,665$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ba…0db1backed Yes | 4c | 4,560$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.1 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x384d…0379backed Yes | 7c | 4,401$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…bd03backed Yes | 6c | 4,313$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +14.8wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9779…8715backed Yes | 12c | 4,250$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7597…cdb6backed Yes | 8c | 4,160$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…b370backed Yes | 12c | 4,121$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0237…10e4backed Yes | 5c | 4,092$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5b…29bcbacked Yes | 13c | 4,080$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9758…536dbacked Yes | 10c | 3,950$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 14c | 3,877$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.02 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa020…d807backed Yes | 6c | 3,829$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.63 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20f9…4cdbbacked Yes | 10c | 3,800$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c43…181abacked Yes | 6c | 3,778$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c3…b859backed Yes | 8c | 3,692$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…69e9backed Yes | 1c | 3,671$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…f9f5backed Yes | 6c | 3,541$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.81 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae9b…2926backed Yes | 4c | 3,455$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbea…19f4backed Yes | 10c | 3,363$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.08 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 12c | 3,346$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7419…f732backed Yes | 6c | 3,230$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6f…8afbbacked Yes | 9c | 3,225$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f51…e179backed Yes | 8c | 3,053$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fe…1234backed Yes | 14c | 3,037$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5fb…4064backed Yes | 2c | 3,027$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6778…226abacked Yes | 7c | 3,019$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…df9ebacked Yes | 8c | 3,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.