TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Khamenei leave Iran before July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$220,626
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$197,739

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $220,626 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe162…8a81backed Yes4c27,470$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0503033.3%10 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+38.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8967…1e9bbacked Yes10c10,237$1,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,054.22528%7 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-18.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x62b3…209ebacked Yes5c9,139$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8468…10c2backed Yes6c7,277$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes2c6,058$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.44827.3%6 W · 76 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-79.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes1c5,999$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.5581.7%1 W · 57 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-93.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes2c3,915$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.352078.2%17 W · 190 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-88.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes8c3,618$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.3724234.3%83 W · 159 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2fe5…4e08backed Yes8c3,535$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.942536%9 W · 16 L+3.8wins+0.15per pick21cpaid+71.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0faf…ca6abacked Yes7c3,453$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.47413.5%10 W · 64 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-54.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes8c3,344$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.16110%0 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed Yes3c3,127$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899711.3%11 W · 86 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes4c3,108$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.861235.7%7 W · 116 L-10.1wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-83.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes10c3,072$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.4351138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2663…ed1fbacked Yes1c2,730$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.872222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-63.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8dc6…62e0backed Yes11c2,206$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.721315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-70.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c2,188$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.591,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes7c1,922$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.552850%14 W · 14 L+5.5wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+47.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xb83c…92bfbacked Yes9c1,813$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.182623.1%6 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-54.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xceab…96a0backed Yes15c1,781$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.52742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-25.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x662c…bfe7backed Yes11c1,686$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1788552.9%45 W · 40 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes9c1,500$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.9129129.9%87 W · 204 L+21.5wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+30.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcbac…0000backed Yes5c1,485$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.53137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick22cpaid-85.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x67a9…c417backed Yes13c1,442$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.087230.6%22 W · 50 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes7c1,378$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.4843212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3df1…a15bbacked Yes9c1,155$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes7c1,100$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.33400%0 W · 40 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f51…e179backed Yes4c1,031$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402910.3%3 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-49.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e3f…e9fbbacked Yes13c1,019$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa020…d807backed Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004119.5%8 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x785b…c51dbacked Yes6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74b2…e69fbacked Yes2c999.97$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7340%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes13c999.08$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.1240433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3c4…0d19backed Yes5c968.6$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502623.1%6 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-48.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes3c898.98$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5720823.1%48 W · 160 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4485…6d42backed Yes11c876.34$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb78b…5d40backed Yes8c813.96$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.58333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick13cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes5c802.98$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.17721.4%1 W · 71 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-67.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x932b…64c0backed Yes6c751.09$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.294634.8%16 W · 30 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+104.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeacb…c7e9backed Yes9c719.19$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0da4…8e21backed Yes7c714.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes7c702.55$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7642120.9%88 W · 333 L-0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes11c600$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649642.7%41 W · 55 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x132c…c285backed Yes9c555.56$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.30per pick28cpaid+81.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes10c523.45$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.354334.9%15 W · 28 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-22.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes10c511.76$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3613629.4%40 W · 96 L-10.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-48.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa116…6f3bbacked Yes13c472.36$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-81.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes12c452.61$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0189617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x94d1…8371backed Yes7c421.3$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3140%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ee1…01f8backed Yes4c405.62$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b0d…fec9backed Yes8c400$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30296.9%2 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-72.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5954…2b5fbacked Yes8c400$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327323.3%17 W · 56 L-7.8wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-56.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x171d…5976backed Yes13c399.62$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac1f…68f1backed Yes13c396.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5070%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x33e2…aec0backed Yes9c380$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-41.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe588…7397backed Yes7c375$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.25911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-70.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x023c…13fdbacked Yes14c357.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes10c345$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.368515.3%13 W · 72 L-5.9wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-49.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x03e5…dd0fbacked Yes10c325.1$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.511936.8%7 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+48.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b3e…0b91backed Yes14c321.43$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452010%2 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick23cpaid-67.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbae6…2d92backed Yes10c309.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5431…964dbacked Yes10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30100%0 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes9c299.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268351.8%43 W · 40 L+10.8wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+47.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes9c299.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2615324.8%38 W · 115 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8a3…5adabacked Yes7c290$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.350%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a99…e9efbacked Yes7c285.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb555…e61bbacked Yes9c285$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.653557.1%20 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3407…ba74backed Yes7c272.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20303.3%1 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid+270.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ef0…4cdcbacked Yes13c267.4$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353542.9%15 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc085…82fabacked Yes6c244.57$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156929%20 W · 49 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53a9…ec57backed Yes4c240.37$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick5cpaid+108.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa656…309cbacked Yes13c236.21$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.571428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5272…dd1ebacked Yes11c232.46$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c14…4b80backed Yes9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-41.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0013…3c30backed Yes9c219.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208721.8%19 W · 68 L+0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdfd…8b51backed Yes13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262040%8 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58e1…9eb2backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-70.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e9d…478abacked Yes8c186.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155616.1%9 W · 47 L-7.3wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-73.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x06fa…5c18backed Yes11c181.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x96ff…f74cbacked Yes14c178.57$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2528…0978backed Yes8c164.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.754757.4%27 W · 20 L+8.1wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+27.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1c0e…e54dbacked Yes13c160$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7375…c39fbacked Yes14c153.97$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2120%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa2b…c35dbacked Yes8c150$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12387.9%3 W · 35 L-4.6wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-60.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9c53…44f2backed Yes13c150$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.51827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-53.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0308…182cbacked Yes8c141.89$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.984332.6%14 W · 29 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe281…e7bfbacked Yes8c140$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2258%2 W · 23 L-3.1wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-79.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc20c…7d87backed Yes11c138.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…0becbacked Yes9c132.62$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick20cpaid-78.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcced…9ffebacked Yes12c129.31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.783455.9%19 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd72…4a1ebacked Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102218.2%4 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd99e…49cdbacked Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes13c115.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520247%95 W · 107 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9eaf…b5c0backed Yes9c115.31$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick19cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9292…bc5bbacked Yes14c101.79$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea61…8f05backed Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121010%1 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick31cpaid-72.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x16b8…5201backed Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-43.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe02b…e2b3backed Yes12c90$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes36c29$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4423525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86d1…84cbbacked No64c29$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.442171.4%15 W · 6 L+4.4wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+47.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.