TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will anyone be charged as a result of Epstein file release?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$570,730
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$612,403

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $570,730 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 189 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb464…0b8cbacked Yes18c86,456$15,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,562.08450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+43.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3899…452ebacked Yes19c53,357$9,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,994.24714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick45cpaid-75.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xef43…7b62backed Yes21c23,110$4,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,867.77296.9%2 W · 27 L-4.0wins-0.14per pick21cpaid-58.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed No71c17,934$12,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,290.5710749.5%53 W · 54 L+10.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+61.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x91d2…8f47backed Yes19c14,476$2,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,784.272222.7%5 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-62.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf66f…8e0cbacked Yes29c14,218$4,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,053.471533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-33%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x063d…3567backed No68c13,911$9,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,443.881163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+56.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x73bb…9473backed Yes12c10,038$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200.24633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-56.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe877…bb43backed Yes33c7,613$2,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,488.361414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick28cpaid-68.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xded5…d9cabacked Yes10c6,330$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.67825.6%20 W · 58 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-26.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x71e5…d10bbacked No78c5,743$4,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,261.173928.2%11 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf743…ac84backed No80c5,204$4,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,063.791952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes21c4,647$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963.0837533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x59a5…afc8backed No77c4,502$3,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.181050%5 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf311…fe1bbacked Yes8c4,501$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36090%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No80c3,422$2,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$697.6199629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9df4…02c9backed Yes33c3,374$1,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,113.22744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc1b…9397backed Yes15c3,336$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick20cpaid+86.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes3c3,330$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.512910.9%14 W · 115 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-44.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b88…d628backed Yes22c3,117$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.453737.8%14 W · 23 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+94.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd8a7…d2ccbacked Yes19c2,952$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.06313.2%1 W · 30 L-4.5wins-0.15per pick18cpaid-91.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes25c2,901$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735.358231.7%26 W · 56 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b4b…5d71backed Yes28c2,878$815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$815812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-33.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xab60…b46cbacked Yes18c2,532$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4604422.7%10 W · 34 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-47.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99d7…d918backed Yes17c2,475$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.987432.4%24 W · 50 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa37f…3584backed Yes23c1,763$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.38520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-71.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ef5…8898backed Yes16c1,600$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2561127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-51.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfec7…1594backed Yes22c1,514$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.1280%0 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf62…cab6backed Yes3c1,435$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea6f…0c0abacked Yes35c1,429$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+29.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08b1…504bbacked Yes33c1,404$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.1830%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes22c1,387$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.623859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b14…49a4backed Yes14c1,332$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.84156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick13cpaid-74.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf031…89b5backed Yes3c1,147$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.225825.9%15 W · 43 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbec7…6cfdbacked No71c1,136$809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.961478.6%11 W · 3 L+5.1wins+0.36per pick42cpaid+119.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xa448…79c1backed Yes17c1,120$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1901637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe75c…f6c2backed No69c1,110$771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.556442.2%27 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8b7…165cbacked Yes15c1,100$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-66.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21d5…9925backed No77c1,100$848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2521877.8%14 W · 4 L+4.0wins+0.22per pick56cpaid+43.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc561…fa80backed No77c1,000$771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2293959%23 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick66cpaid-17.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c8a…e62abacked Yes10c999.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001540%6 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-26.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf62c…f445backed Yes25c998.09$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No76c992.54$755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.315155%83 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed No76c990.48$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.0611940.3%48 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd632…7e17backed Yes19c980.16$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.231154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.23per pick31cpaid+64.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5e23…2200backed Yes33c903.53$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ffe…e125backed No77c899.99$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.423964.1%25 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1002…bdf0backed Yes8c890.27$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.67633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick15cpaid+223.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1add…d2afbacked Yes23c856.17$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7f5…fe12backed Yes25c854.99$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.561637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes18c830$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.59810.2%10 W · 88 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-60.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xea15…c292backed Yes25c808.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20090%0 W · 9 L-4.4wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x8e41…5932backed Yes27c789$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.541040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-44.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfef5…1a76backed Yes30c781$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.31225%3 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4440…5f67backed Yes10c722.22$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.224431.8%14 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf296…9839backed Yes18c700$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12640%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf572…09f2backed Yes4c692.94$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256119.7%12 W · 49 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c14…af5fbacked Yes36c670$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.46955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb70e…39c6backed Yes11c669.9$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.69425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x088d…63b0backed Yes27c633.39$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.21425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked No77c619.99$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.029557.9%55 W · 40 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd383…110dbacked Yes34c582.86$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06b9…f7fcbacked Yes15c573.02$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.69425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-64.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c565.25$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.411,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68da…ee52backed Yes23c559.52$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.931118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick12cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No67c533.44$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.9313556.3%76 W · 59 L+13.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+18.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x09d7…1b55backed Yes10c520$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick11cpaid-76%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x217e…3a4cbacked Yes24c500$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201850%9 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed Yes34c500$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17015238.8%59 W · 93 L-13.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x27af…6ec8backed Yes10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501030%3 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed No68c500$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1607338.4%28 W · 45 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x648c…09c6backed No77c500$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1151957.9%11 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.19per pick39cpaid+25.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6030…52ddbacked Yes21c452.95$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.261618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick34cpaid-43.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6115…2a89backed Yes18c450.49$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.223844.7%17 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+32.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x24c5…923dbacked Yes33c409.75$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.62137.7%1 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.23per pick31cpaid-89.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x86e2…2f3ebacked Yes19c394.74$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752035%7 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-26.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a3d…e107backed Yes26c384.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-69.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes28c365$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.0817021.2%36 W · 134 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73f0…3d28backed Yes10c358.89$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.892015%3 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-67.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c72…dfb6backed Yes21c342.54$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.933839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick45cpaid+30.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeaf4…e0f3backed Yes21c340.59$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.581010%1 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-70.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed Yes23c332.99$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.411918.5%22 W · 97 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0317…7f6bbacked Yes29c313.48$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-46.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9961…adcbbacked No75c305$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.251250%6 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No73c300$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8139522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38d5…063cbacked No77c300$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682365.2%15 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf70…d4a0backed Yes32c299.77$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+60.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xde26…0972backed No69c297.96$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.67562.7%47 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fe2…87c5backed No78c286$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.921250%6 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe341…273bbacked Yes26c282.15$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.131040%4 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+23.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9810…4925backed Yes15c270.39$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.581533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e63…cb93backed No75c267.99$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes23c267.74$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.0456733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe8e4…b676backed No65c265.02$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.939746.4%45 W · 52 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+63.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes33c258$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.293724.3%9 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf84…703cbacked Yes42c239.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No75c239.51$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.637740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc74…0a82backed Yes21c238.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-65.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x29fc…06b0backed No69c217.06$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.311361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+29.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No73c207.37$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.361,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.