Tweets · resolved market
Will Dittman tweet between 70 and 79 times Jan 3-Jan 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0b8510d9b37c7a8d82e69c55d335d82ba0963b99e05a276bf93f841dd03c8a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,764
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,414
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,764 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 1c | 2,153$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf982…1c15backed Yes | 28c | 1,458$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.25 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa87…55adbacked Yes | 9c | 1,123$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked No | 71c | 582.19$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.83 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 10c | 422.17$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 4c | 249.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 7c | 233.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 24c | 200.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 27c | 191.89$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.94 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 16c | 166.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 24c | 151.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…19bcbacked Yes | 10c | 149.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 38c | 100.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fb…2bfdbacked Yes | 17c | 68.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…3eedbacked Yes | 44c | 44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3b…d67cbacked Yes | 48c | 37.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ad…d871backed No | 78c | 14.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Dittman tweet between 70 and 79 times Jan 3-Jan 10?this page
- Will Dittman tweet 140 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Dittman tweet between 100 and 109 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Dittman tweet between 110 and 119 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Dittman tweet between 120 and 129 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Dittman tweet between 130 and 139 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Dittman tweet between 60 and 69 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Dittman tweet between 80 and 89 times Jan 3-Jan 10?Yes won
- Will Dittman tweet between 90 and 99 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Dittman tweet less than 60 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.