Tweets · resolved market
Will Dittman tweet between 80 and 89 times Jan 3-Jan 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x239bb2e1b6daba0f048809362bfebbda0fadf66e1e2a386eeb8925aa5745ffd1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,620
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,620 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf982…1c15backed Yes | 56c | 583.87$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.13 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 29c | 421.87$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.79 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 303.08$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.56 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 60c | 250.95$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.25 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80d1…f6c4backed Yes | 79c | 250.35$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 6c | 207.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.03 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…15e2backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 50c | 178.05$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.05 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62dd…869abacked Yes | 13c | 175.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.88 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 13c | 166.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.4 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…19bcbacked Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.5 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 74c | 139.84$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 39c | 131.71$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.34 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d83…24fcbacked Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 28c | 95.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.77 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3831…c9bfbacked Yes | 20c | 84.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.61 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3b…d67cbacked Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2c…435ebacked No | 32c | 71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x719f…9d66backed Yes | 68c | 71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 28c | 69.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…0434backed No | 33c | 68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8171…4e93backed No | 33c | 68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…2bfbbacked Yes | 67c | 68$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb909…1155backed Yes | 67c | 68$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2078…db9bbacked No | 33c | 65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea1…0efcbacked Yes | 67c | 65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa59e…1d73backed Yes | 69c | 64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35cf…2cfcbacked No | 31c | 64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fb…2bfdbacked Yes | 17c | 60.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…1b86backed No | 31c | 57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d4…9877backed Yes | 69c | 57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aab…c911backed Yes | 35c | 56.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -69%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4f…99f0backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9865…cee2backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55b…5131backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc0…0a82backed No | 31c | 48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed89…6e36backed Yes | 69c | 48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…7a5dbacked Yes | 68c | 44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab9e…3ad7backed No | 32c | 44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 41c | 40.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x822f…ca5fbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f6…6abdbacked Yes | 40c | 37.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc88…731ebacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 75c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Dittman tweet between 80 and 89 times Jan 3-Jan 10?this page
- Will Dittman tweet 140 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Dittman tweet between 100 and 109 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Dittman tweet between 110 and 119 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Dittman tweet between 120 and 129 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Dittman tweet between 130 and 139 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Dittman tweet between 60 and 69 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Dittman tweet between 70 and 79 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Dittman tweet between 90 and 99 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
- Will Dittman tweet less than 60 times Jan 3-Jan 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.