Us Politics · resolved market
Will Putin visit the U.S. before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa503070c5f90c70e460260460637f50ded4d8886e0a3969c76c557d5377b42f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $141,775
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $137,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,775 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef19…91e7backed Yes | 11c | 10,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcba3…6055backed Yes | 6c | 8,300$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 7,383$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.97 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 8c | 6,146$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.67 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…0b82backed Yes | 10c | 5,778$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 2c | 5,221$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.81 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 11c | 3,365$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.17 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 4c | 2,097$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.43 | 98 | 10.2%10 W · 88 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bb…fb35backed Yes | 1c | 2,002$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -89.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,855$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 5c | 1,603$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.77 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 1,535$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 11c | 1,531$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.7 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked Yes | 8c | 1,342$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.74 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ab…0e6cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,231$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 8c | 1,210$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.41 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8558…d6c9backed Yes | 3c | 1,202$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 7c | 977$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.74 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf06f…81efbacked Yes | 12c | 954.98$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 13c | 777$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.01 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3495…b2a6backed Yes | 11c | 708.33$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 11c | 704.41$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.43 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeef…e421backed Yes | 15c | 683.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 10c | 519.18$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.56 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe87f…9d9bbacked Yes | 10c | 510$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 498.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 13c | 353.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 148 | 43.2%64 W · 84 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9466…40afbacked Yes | 10c | 290$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x092f…18acbacked Yes | 9c | 204$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8182…7cf5backed Yes | 13c | 201.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f91…ed9bbacked Yes | 10c | 185.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 12c | 155.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 14c | 153.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cea…9ac1backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae0…d1bcbacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0802…81cabacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.