Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Vivek Ramaswamy be appointed as the next Ohio senator?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24de94a98f2c41d607c77cd1c5382782280cb7c31d398be5c327e58a38f55707
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $923,172
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,568,269
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $923,172 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9836…d761backed Yes | 15c | 39,635$5,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,912.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 25,590$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.13 | 132 | 0.8%1 W · 131 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27d2…482cbacked Yes | 3c | 7,108$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed No | 74c | 6,679$4,958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,720.97 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 1c | 5,475$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde97…e43ebacked Yes | 24c | 5,000$1,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,214.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc96a…396abacked No | 75c | 4,510$3,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.43 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 67cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 17c | 3,439$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.91 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed No | 79c | 2,428$1,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.12 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 74c | 2,376$1,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.81 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 16c | 2,351$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.43 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes | 13c | 1,865$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.41 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc99…9d39backed Yes | 8c | 1,781$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 1,672$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.55 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…f7c0backed Yes | 10c | 1,622$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.42 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed No | 76c | 1,472$1,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.77 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Yes | 36c | 1,445$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes | 43c | 1,391$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.5 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 68cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9c…d01bbacked Yes | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed No | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a2…5374backed Yes | 18c | 831.32$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 7c | 756$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.26 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 22c | 725$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.88 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -56%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x375a…7875backed Yes | 15c | 646.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 64c | 631.22$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.76 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c4…55cfbacked Yes | 24c | 600$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d0…de55backed No | 79c | 594.75$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 2c | 540.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…1aa4backed Yes | 13c | 537.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 33c | 520.58$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.99 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca9…ac31backed Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f62…38fcbacked Yes | 32c | 500$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 72c | 444$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.21 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c60…67c1backed No | 80c | 399.99$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked No | 64c | 345.59$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Yes | 14c | 345.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3445…808fbacked Yes | 36c | 344.31$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a97…0fc7backed Yes | 16c | 328$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 19c | 300$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…bba0backed Yes | 9c | 300$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5d…a0f9backed No | 77c | 287$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x550d…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 70c | 250$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.5 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf449…198abacked Yes | 10c | 214.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…3e65backed Yes | 17c | 200.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…6fa3backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 20c | 187.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed No | 60c | 176.46$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.33 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 28c | 164.48$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbe…1cf2backed Yes | 14c | 147.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 34c | 146$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.06 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf1…a106backed No | 76c | 140$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf7…0151backed Yes | 40c | 131.57$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a3…b340backed No | 78c | 130.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 20c | 124$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 24cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0760…c72ebacked Yes | 17c | 120.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…e129backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f00…77babacked Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20e1…d611backed Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b9…c8e4backed No | 57c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e09…3cb2backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Vivek Ramaswamy be appointed as the next Ohio senator?this page
- Will Frank LaRose be appointed as the next Ohio senator?No won
- Will Jane Timken be appointed as the next Ohio senator?No won
- Will Jon Husted be appointed as the next Ohio senator?Yes won
- Will Matt Dolan be appointed as the next Ohio senator?No won
- Will Mike Carey be appointed as the next Ohio senator?No won
- Will Warren Davidson be appointed as the next Ohio senator?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.