Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Frank LaRose be appointed as the next Ohio senator?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7399bd24c16cdef567d71ef2352776c8861017146c4e99d727605f4d84ba94d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,220
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,220 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 9,733$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 132 | 0.8%1 W · 131 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f6…58d6backed Yes | 2c | 2,877$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 23cpaid | +123.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 13c | 1,496$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.26 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 16c | 739.7$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.14 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 659.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 3c | 600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x577c…7dd1backed Yes | 28c | 309$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.45 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 8c | 268.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 9c | 226.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 74c | 210$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.77 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed Yes | 20c | 204$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 28c | 200.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 8c | 180.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed Yes | 17c | 135.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…77c7backed Yes | 28c | 100.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438e…9704backed No | 78c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Frank LaRose be appointed as the next Ohio senator?this page
- Will Jane Timken be appointed as the next Ohio senator?No won
- Will Jon Husted be appointed as the next Ohio senator?Yes won
- Will Matt Dolan be appointed as the next Ohio senator?No won
- Will Mike Carey be appointed as the next Ohio senator?No won
- Will Vivek Ramaswamy be appointed as the next Ohio senator?No won
- Will Warren Davidson be appointed as the next Ohio senator?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.