Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Matt Dolan be appointed as the next Ohio senator?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2e348d203a8f56e66b4dc9d429816f2a0a089eb86174471608bca749c6bfb1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,106
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,353
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,106 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 19,192$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 132 | 0.8%1 W · 131 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x846f…750ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,134$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 11c | 1,209$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.41 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 24c | 1,208$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.85 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed No | 60c | 978.58$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.87 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7854…90a5backed Yes | 40c | 699.85$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.95 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 13c | 410$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed No | 74c | 402$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.52 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 7c | 398.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 70c | 377.94$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.81 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb296…cb8fbacked Yes | 43c | 367.52$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed No | 58c | 356.82$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.86 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 29c | 329.06$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.3 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 26c | 311.88$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.74 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +49%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked No | 67c | 271.81$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.94 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -56%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe423…299dbacked No | 58c | 260$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x400e…fbc2backed Yes | 42c | 260$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…dee1backed Yes | 42c | 241$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.05 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 8c | 233$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 39 | 5.1%2 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 16c | 220$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…bba9backed Yes | 39c | 220$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.35 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 67c | 175.89$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.3 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20c5…88e6backed Yes | 40c | 166$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x577c…7dd1backed Yes | 13c | 151$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd49…bfa4backed No | 57c | 110.27$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9c…ad87backed No | 40c | 106.52$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.91 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed No | 73c | 105.35$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1267…7c97backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 67.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e2…25f7backed No | 65c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 62c | 34.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 38c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a8a…845abacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1d…5e7cbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Matt Dolan be appointed as the next Ohio senator?this page
- Will Frank LaRose be appointed as the next Ohio senator?No won
- Will Jane Timken be appointed as the next Ohio senator?No won
- Will Jon Husted be appointed as the next Ohio senator?Yes won
- Will Mike Carey be appointed as the next Ohio senator?No won
- Will Vivek Ramaswamy be appointed as the next Ohio senator?No won
- Will Warren Davidson be appointed as the next Ohio senator?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.