Movies · resolved market
Will Kieran Culkin win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2267bf0dae9c9d10e36752b073de3f3ca2638d11eafb04d666fbebd43c3ac59b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $154,466
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $176,324
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $154,466 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 6c | 11,646$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.27 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 11c | 11,437$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,219.74 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd031…7d2ebacked No | 14c | 7,056$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.03 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 21c | 6,050$1,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,291.71 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a45…9d4abacked No | 3c | 5,828$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.84 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | +8.8wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x22d3…5e3abacked Yes | 80c | 5,532$4,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,122.93 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 78c | 5,190$4,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,136.58 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 79c | 4,540$3,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$971.95 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 6c | 3,628$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.65 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed No | 5c | 3,469$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.2 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…2adbbacked Yes | 73c | 3,235$2,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.51 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x340f…3cf5backed No | 7c | 2,967$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 9c | 2,655$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.02 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 78c | 2,066$1,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.86 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a3…cd82backed No | 13c | 1,740$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.8 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 28c | 1,696$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.88 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed No | 4c | 1,652$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.18 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8387…ace9backed No | 23c | 1,533$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed No | 7c | 1,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.48 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed No | 25c | 1,463$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.64 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x519f…2af7backed Yes | 76c | 1,320$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 74c | 1,269$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.32 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2adb…2cd7backed No | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 7c | 897.84$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.25 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 27c | 800$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.73 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed No | 4c | 750$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 74 | 4.1%3 W · 71 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 4c | 643$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed No | 11c | 622.47$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.47 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed No | 5c | 600$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked No | 24c | 476.93$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.46 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -40%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked Yes | 78c | 450.33$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.33 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 21c | 445$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.85 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed No | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 7c | 394.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b83…905ebacked No | 5c | 377.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b96…439bbacked No | 6c | 341.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 10c | 330.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked No | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.81 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cc…3f0fbacked No | 34c | 296.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes | 74c | 284.3$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.23 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4d…caa6backed No | 4c | 264.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 73c | 239$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.53 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…026cbacked No | 23c | 205.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 25c | 180$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7dc…0955backed Yes | 69c | 144.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 76c | 127$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed Yes | 75c | 120.91$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 77c | 120$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed No | 10c | 110.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa5…8f79backed Yes | 77c | 97.4$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 27c | 97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed No | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe900…6cdcbacked No | 24c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Yes | 76c | 66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 24c | 53.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb73…a4bebacked Yes | 72c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf40a…8114backed Yes | 79c | 29.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1374…3e56backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed Yes | 68c | 23.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea5…b66bbacked Yes | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked Yes | 77c | 13.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kieran Culkin win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars?this page
- Will Clarence Maclin win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will Denzel Washington win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will Edward Norton win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will Guy Pearce win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will Jeremy Strong win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will Stanley Tucci win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will Willem Dafoe win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will Yura Borisov win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.