Movies · resolved market
Will Jeremy Strong win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2baf4d031621e1b11fc0e506118a745c38cc91f5250ed158c02150de8c76ff79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,437
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 7c | 4,080$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.88 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x772a…c9f3backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 7c | 2,228$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.17 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 6c | 2,207$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.25 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904d…8fd8backed Yes | 2c | 2,103$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 7c | 1,558$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.12 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…36eebacked Yes | 3c | 646.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 7c | 416$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a6…6cc2backed Yes | 7c | 367.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe266…add3backed Yes | 4c | 244.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8229…0f55backed Yes | 10c | 191.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jeremy Strong win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars?this page
- Will Clarence Maclin win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will Denzel Washington win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will Edward Norton win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will Guy Pearce win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will Kieran Culkin win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars?Yes won
- Will Stanley Tucci win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will Willem Dafoe win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will Yura Borisov win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.