Movies · resolved market
Will Edward Norton win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a5c3273819cbadbc0e3fd45105ac6e18b9ef438864907513c7b2a3a4a22f9c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,043
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,385
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,043 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4960…7a11backed Yes | 7c | 9,010$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x772a…c9f3backed Yes | 3c | 4,337$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.56 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 5c | 3,438$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.26 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes | 6c | 1,563$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.76 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 1c | 1,547$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8848…895fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,476$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 2c | 1,250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed Yes | 7c | 1,200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.83 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 7c | 1,005$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.07 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 692.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 601.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2adb…2cd7backed Yes | 2c | 572.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a45…9d4abacked No | 30c | 564.18$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.74 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | +8.8wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed Yes | 2c | 481.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 460.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 6c | 396.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d00…d499backed Yes | 6c | 300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +135.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 6c | 250.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46c…f641backed Yes | 7c | 167$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Edward Norton win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars?this page
- Will Clarence Maclin win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will Denzel Washington win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will Guy Pearce win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will Jeremy Strong win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will Kieran Culkin win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars?Yes won
- Will Stanley Tucci win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will Willem Dafoe win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will Yura Borisov win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.