Movies · resolved market
Will Guy Pearce win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88233d815b8afd76bc52361710a560a15134edde63433e67f1ee7dc7914cb583
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x772a…c9f3backed Yes | 1c | 4,900$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 4c | 4,169$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.78 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x454c…bd22backed Yes | 1c | 3,778$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +208.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 1c | 2,019$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 4c | 1,713$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 5c | 1,550$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.77 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff21…f489backed Yes | 7c | 1,400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 1,394$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 4c | 1,150$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 1c | 712$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…4db3backed Yes | 5c | 600$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f77…9d8ebacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 10cpaid | +162.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Guy Pearce win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars?this page
- Will Clarence Maclin win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will Denzel Washington win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will Edward Norton win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will Jeremy Strong win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will Kieran Culkin win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars?Yes won
- Will Stanley Tucci win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will Willem Dafoe win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will Yura Borisov win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.