Us Politics · resolved market
Trump's sovereign wealth fund acquires TikTok before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x501494f965e16e6829b81dddc56100aeab88a704c6ec287fe995899d6c336476
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,569
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,569 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 9c | 3,366$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.18 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…151abacked Yes | 11c | 3,205$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.73 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8980…e844backed Yes | 12c | 2,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7f…de71backed Yes | 11c | 1,366$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e73…c8e4backed Yes | 5c | 1,202$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…b899backed Yes | 12c | 1,083$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d2…8f47backed Yes | 11c | 1,077$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.37 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a52…cecebacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +39%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…3141backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa950…ce2cbacked Yes | 1c | 949.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed Yes | 2c | 663.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x460f…e20bbacked Yes | 12c | 548.58$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.83 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9c…ad87backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5335…0b0fbacked Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 6c | 480.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 10c | 444.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 148 | 43.2%64 W · 84 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cff…6051backed Yes | 6c | 360$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 11c | 326$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 74 | 28.4%21 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.