TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel military action against Iran in April?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$683,389
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$647,863

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $683,389 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9e28…dc83backed Yes13c69,468$9,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,060.932429.2%7 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+22%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb9b9…c2b6backed Yes8c42,629$3,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,437.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ac…a9c9backed Yes16c33,360$5,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,357.69437%3 W · 40 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-82.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes5c25,667$1,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,406.917610.5%8 W · 68 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x011d…3d2fbacked Yes5c18,302$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.721127.3%3 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.19per pick9cpaid+46.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x34cd…4231backed Yes10c16,674$1,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,710.441442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+96.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes6c15,550$917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$917.422213.6%3 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-56.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bac…6634backed Yes15c15,300$2,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3581266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+66.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2964…ea1ebacked Yes10c12,334$1,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,197.391315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-65.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes6c11,056$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.352653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x770e…7640backed Yes3c10,112$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.0520617%35 W · 171 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-33.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc658…b784backed Yes6c9,896$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.157542.7%32 W · 43 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf98…f72abacked Yes3c9,486$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes8c7,055$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.9636750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes7c6,019$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.498450%42 W · 42 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8ba8…61b7backed Yes6c5,996$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.18450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+23.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89c7…3ff0backed Yes5c5,437$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.414231%13 W · 29 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+27.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1ad6…8845backed Yes9c5,070$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.431330.8%4 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-43.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc4c…4fc2backed Yes8c4,784$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.3540%2 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick10cpaid+195%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes13c4,057$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.0916743.7%73 W · 94 L+11.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes6c3,640$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.2651138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae06…77e1backed Yes12c3,167$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3852931%9 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf815…4f3ebacked Yes9c3,111$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.952737%10 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes7c3,100$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.528750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked Yes11c3,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3302532%8 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes10c2,927$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.5717929.1%52 W · 127 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes7c2,885$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.93333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f58…f06fbacked Yes4c2,824$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick9cpaid+70.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8be2…8b8abacked Yes8c2,677$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.42313%3 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes11c2,305$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.02647.8%5 W · 59 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-53.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x62d5…78d1backed Yes2c2,283$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.994843.8%21 W · 27 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18f…294cbacked Yes7c2,264$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.22740.7%11 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+27.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes8c2,000$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.2910139.6%40 W · 61 L+10.2wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+32.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc472…ced9backed Yes4c2,000$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.11414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-44.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8334…4e9fbacked Yes6c1,901$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.044628.3%13 W · 33 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58b6…7687backed Yes8c1,825$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501838.9%7 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.14per pick25cpaid-3.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes12c1,776$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.1242738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c1,484$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.821,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes7c1,478$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.9242120.9%88 W · 333 L-0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6286…f59cbacked Yes8c1,400$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10825518%46 W · 209 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-26.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe277…8e46backed Yes9c1,320$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.8116440.2%66 W · 98 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x02ea…4472backed Yes11c1,265$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13350%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes5c1,172$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.472520%5 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes8c1,136$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.521421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+62.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90a9…03e6backed Yes9c1,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001030%3 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick22cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes4c1,079$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.366637.9%25 W · 41 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-32.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e63…9313backed Yes10c1,071$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.61250%6 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+22.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcd6c…119fbacked Yes11c1,029$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes1c1,024$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.042078.2%17 W · 190 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-88.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked Yes9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909234.8%32 W · 60 L-7.9wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-42.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xec6a…afccbacked Yes8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe617…51bcbacked Yes12c972.92$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.75358.6%3 W · 32 L+0.1wins0.00per pick8cpaid-83.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa75c…895ebacked Yes8c962.49$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.261020%2 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-74.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes9c922.11$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.6435819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e62…cf17backed Yes11c909.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes5c847.34$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1877636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed Yes9c800$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.63619.4%7 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick20cpaid-31.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e78…e415backed Yes8c794.88$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.593627.8%10 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-31.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe809…039bbacked Yes17c683.46$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.1916832.1%54 W · 114 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes3c673.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9734440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes9c650$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.543212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes9c600$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5115324.8%38 W · 115 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8196…ab69backed Yes5c579.25$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.954845.8%22 W · 26 L+4.7wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+6.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaf6b…1ed2backed Yes9c555.56$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5f6…8e44backed Yes9c533.33$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf555…b2d5backed Yes6c525$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.54912.2%6 W · 43 L-0.2wins0.00per pick13cpaid-48.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5a3…d1d2backed Yes4c491.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea83…5c8fbacked No68c479.99$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.66254.8%34 W · 28 L+7.5wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+31.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf0ce…ee0bbacked Yes11c466.67$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc178…35b3backed No50c442.41$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.321573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.20per pick53cpaid+48.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe732…ced9backed Yes11c427.2$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.991353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4b6…41a7backed Yes10c416.31$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.632330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-36.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb8f…c6e5backed Yes10c400$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-18.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x01a8…ababbacked Yes5c400$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes8c398.28$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.76540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e72…9938backed Yes11c391$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.01366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+13.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes4c375.06$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7315023.3%35 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-18.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27b7…ac6fbacked Yes9c333.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-28.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5da1…980bbacked Yes12c333.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4090%0 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaa64…a43dbacked Yes11c328.74$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.168433.3%28 W · 56 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+75.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x870a…bd43backed Yes8c311.11$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268530.6%26 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes7c310.29$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8413629.4%40 W · 96 L-10.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-48.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes7c300$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218351.8%43 W · 40 L+10.8wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+47.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd121…54c7backed Yes12c300$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa83a…cd8ebacked Yes4c299.6$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.37250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8833…2393backed Yes4c297.14$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124654.3%25 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes4c288.18$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.094334.9%15 W · 28 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-22.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed Yes5c274.49$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1512037.5%45 W · 75 L+9.1wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb29b…6e44backed Yes17c262.53$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b73…4766backed Yes12c255$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.61338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf587…1419backed Yes10c249.95$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2570%0 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x86e2…2f3ebacked Yes11c225$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257360.3%44 W · 29 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x51a4…0e62backed Yes9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-32.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe778…d11dbacked Yes9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4ee…713ebacked Yes14c220$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.21421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-51%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3335…f6debacked Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked Yes11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2240939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ab…daccbacked Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103910.3%4 W · 35 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-58.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9c5…cba8backed Yes12c200$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232416.7%4 W · 20 L-3.8wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-71.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc032…6668backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+62.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.