Middle East · resolved market
Israel military action against Iran in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x036378d7e507b986b2fb92245512435ce417d05f8f76e0a75440923cb4aadecb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $683,389
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $647,863
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $683,389 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e28…dc83backed Yes | 13c | 69,468$9,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,060.93 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b9…c2b6backed Yes | 8c | 42,629$3,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,437.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…a9c9backed Yes | 16c | 33,360$5,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,357.69 | 43 | 7%3 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 5c | 25,667$1,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,406.91 | 76 | 10.5%8 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011d…3d2fbacked Yes | 5c | 18,302$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.72 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 9cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…4231backed Yes | 10c | 16,674$1,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,710.44 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +96.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 6c | 15,550$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.42 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bac…6634backed Yes | 15c | 15,300$2,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,358 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2964…ea1ebacked Yes | 10c | 12,334$1,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,197.39 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes | 6c | 11,056$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.35 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 3c | 10,112$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.05 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 6c | 9,896$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.15 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf98…f72abacked Yes | 3c | 9,486$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 8c | 7,055$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.96 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 7c | 6,019$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.49 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba8…61b7backed Yes | 6c | 5,996$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c7…3ff0backed Yes | 5c | 5,437$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.41 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…8845backed Yes | 9c | 5,070$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.43 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4c…4fc2backed Yes | 8c | 4,784$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 10cpaid | +195%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 13c | 4,057$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.09 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 6c | 3,640$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.26 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae06…77e1backed Yes | 12c | 3,167$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf815…4f3ebacked Yes | 9c | 3,111$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.95 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 7c | 3,100$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.5 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 11c | 3,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes | 10c | 2,927$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.57 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes | 7c | 2,885$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f58…f06fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,824$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8be2…8b8abacked Yes | 8c | 2,677$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.4 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 11c | 2,305$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.02 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…78d1backed Yes | 2c | 2,283$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18f…294cbacked Yes | 7c | 2,264$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.2 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.29 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +10.2wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc472…ced9backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.1 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8334…4e9fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,901$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.04 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b6…7687backed Yes | 8c | 1,825$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 12c | 1,776$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.12 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,484$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.82 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 1,478$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.92 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…8e46backed Yes | 9c | 1,320$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.81 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…4472backed Yes | 11c | 1,265$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,172$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.47 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 8c | 1,136$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.52 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a9…03e6backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 4c | 1,079$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e63…9313backed Yes | 10c | 1,071$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6c…119fbacked Yes | 11c | 1,029$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 1,024$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 92 | 34.8%32 W · 60 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe617…51bcbacked Yes | 12c | 972.92$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.75 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Yes | 8c | 962.49$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.26 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 9c | 922.11$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.64 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e62…cf17backed Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 847.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 9c | 800$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 8c | 794.88$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.59 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 17c | 683.46$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.19 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 3c | 673.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 9c | 650$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 9c | 600$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 153 | 24.8%38 W · 115 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…ab69backed Yes | 5c | 579.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf6b…1ed2backed Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f6…8e44backed Yes | 9c | 533.33$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 6c | 525$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a3…d1d2backed Yes | 4c | 491.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…5c8fbacked No | 68c | 479.99$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.6 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +7.5wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ce…ee0bbacked Yes | 11c | 466.67$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 50c | 442.41$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.32 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…ced9backed Yes | 11c | 427.2$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b6…41a7backed Yes | 10c | 416.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8f…c6e5backed Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a8…ababbacked Yes | 5c | 400$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes | 8c | 398.28$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e72…9938backed Yes | 11c | 391$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 4c | 375.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b7…ac6fbacked Yes | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…980bbacked Yes | 12c | 333.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa64…a43dbacked Yes | 11c | 328.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 8c | 311.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 7c | 310.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 136 | 29.4%40 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +10.8wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…54c7backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa83a…cd8ebacked Yes | 4c | 299.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…2393backed Yes | 4c | 297.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 4c | 288.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 5c | 274.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 120 | 37.5%45 W · 75 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb29b…6e44backed Yes | 17c | 262.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b73…4766backed Yes | 12c | 255$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf587…1419backed Yes | 10c | 249.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86e2…2f3ebacked Yes | 11c | 225$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51a4…0e62backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe778…d11dbacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…713ebacked Yes | 14c | 220$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3335…f6debacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ab…daccbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c5…cba8backed Yes | 12c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc032…6668backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.