Middle East · resolved market
Israel parliament dissolves by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fe728fd4a72ab2de3e4a63b995e4910228db9a3add65bc886defbaccde365b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,234
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a15…0246backed Yes | 11c | 10,163$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100.79 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 79c | 1,529$1,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -9.6wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd90d…97e5backed Yes | 8c | 1,345$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.02 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66d6…50c7backed Yes | 3c | 1,169$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 15c | 1,122$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.08 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 75c | 1,105$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.92 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe371…d32ebacked Yes | 5c | 870$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.67 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0735…005dbacked Yes | 26c | 755.94$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.36 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…b4b2backed No | 79c | 744.45$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.72 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9905…1bc4backed Yes | 27c | 500.44$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.84 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 4c | 444$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 4c | 422.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 27c | 410.68$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.88 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd1…195bbacked Yes | 22c | 392.73$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.3 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7a…b5f7backed Yes | 13c | 386.28$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.31 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 4c | 324.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 66 | 3%2 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -95.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 7c | 301$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcc…f59cbacked Yes | 32c | 294.36$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.2 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 11c | 249.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…507bbacked Yes | 4c | 249.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e93…aaa4backed Yes | 8c | 231$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…7112backed No | 71c | 223.97$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.87 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc487…5a60backed Yes | 15c | 220$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9af4…66c9backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.28per pick | 37cpaid | -86%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x139d…fe64backed Yes | 24c | 189.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e6…b1afbacked Yes | 9c | 174.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 17c | 170$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4b…d3b7backed Yes | 24c | 166.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 158.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e5…c1c2backed Yes | 13c | 152.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 21c | 150.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72c4…25bcbacked Yes | 19c | 149.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 25c | 137.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 27c | 109.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe900…6cdcbacked Yes | 26c | 98.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8071…a390backed Yes | 29c | 94.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d37…09bfbacked No | 73c | 91.86$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 15c | 91.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12b8…e956backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9607…b991backed No | 73c | 86.88$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa135…6babbacked Yes | 28c | 86.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 68c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 29c | 70.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc930…22d0backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96fc…6119backed No | 70c | 59.16$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd075…f3eabacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x695a…331ebacked No | 71c | 35.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c71…14a4backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd248…4e0bbacked No | 74c | 23.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeed9…7405backed No | 74c | 22.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba0…29fcbacked No | 70c | 21.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 77c | 14.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8d…d29ebacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel parliament dissolves by March 31?this page
- Israel parliament dissolves by Jan 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.