Middle East · resolved market
Israel parliament dissolves by Jan 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7546ade9e2a111e5bf112b13c23e6360531c1050ff04bbf25be8e6522b5c1ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,724
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a15…0246backed Yes | 2c | 4,253$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.45 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb38…7935backed Yes | 3c | 4,000$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 6c | 3,231$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.83 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 6c | 2,705$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.5 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 6c | 2,574$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.08 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcc…f59cbacked Yes | 7c | 2,191$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.45 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…f64dbacked Yes | 13c | 2,135$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 6c | 2,090$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.24 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd1…195bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,499$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,341$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.94 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…3e65backed Yes | 9c | 1,033$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +259.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 12c | 802.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664d…aa7dbacked Yes | 5c | 800$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 550.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 6c | 499$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0508…028cbacked Yes | 8c | 393.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67f7…b90abacked Yes | 7c | 323.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 3c | 320.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe371…d32ebacked Yes | 11c | 301.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x139d…fe64backed Yes | 8c | 253$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…d45bbacked Yes | 17c | 120.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4b…d3b7backed Yes | 18c | 88.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel parliament dissolves by Jan 31?this page
- Israel parliament dissolves by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.