Ukraine · resolved market
Trump announces withdrawal of U.S. troops from Warsaw Pact country before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x149c4e565ad564bcc2d1d1e4565dd8c31a66b3a09c5d3e843257b14feba49c9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $107,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $115,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fd6…3b62backed Yes | 29c | 11,881$3,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,390.57 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked No | 69c | 11,092$7,629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,463.11 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3037…3e7ebacked Yes | 5c | 7,139$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x361f…0fc2backed Yes | 16c | 2,934$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51cc…c6c9backed No | 79c | 2,617$2,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.25 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd386…1887backed Yes | 9c | 2,291$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 35c | 2,138$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.95 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes | 17c | 2,006$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.5 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,906$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.01 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 10c | 1,857$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.2 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 13c | 1,630$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.46 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 63c | 1,600$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.61 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2964…ea1ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,554$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.83 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 1,406$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.86 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 1c | 1,351$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 9c | 1,321$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.81 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed Yes | 10c | 1,128$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd03c…68cfbacked Yes | 11c | 1,122$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.47 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 7c | 1,097$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd49…0d55backed Yes | 6c | 897.49$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.85 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacc…e985backed Yes | 15c | 848.85$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.33 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed Yes | 14c | 673.95$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.66 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 17c | 666$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.22 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 605.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 10c | 423.44$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 420.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd08f…9ecfbacked Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bb…fb35backed Yes | 6c | 348.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd757…94aabacked Yes | 19c | 340.65$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.32 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…2370backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 79c | 328.69$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d31fbacked Yes | 15c | 300$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1492…97dabacked No | 73c | 263$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.34 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 16c | 256.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 9c | 249.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 227.03$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d85…c1b8backed Yes | 21c | 210.88$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d1…8749backed Yes | 12c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9675…1bf1backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +1,067.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1e…2577backed Yes | 14c | 161.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x107f…fe60backed Yes | 25c | 142.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 75c | 133.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.87 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x53e8…14f0backed No | 75c | 132$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae92…22b0backed Yes | 19c | 130$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 8c | 127.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed Yes | 8c | 127$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb0…7652backed No | 75c | 116.4$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f3…0545backed Yes | 16c | 115$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 111.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 42c | 103.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f61…c8aabacked Yes | 24c | 102.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda2…45f9backed No | 60c | 102.42$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +39%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x039e…c5e0backed Yes | 20c | 101.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…b256backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 22cpaid | +329.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…d019backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…863fbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcaf…7d43backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +143.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd653…db4dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 22c | 66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 18c | 64.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 21c | 62.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…ab48backed Yes | 40c | 59.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed Yes | 20c | 56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x092f…18acbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd301…8a94backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05bd…300cbacked Yes | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…f6d2backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf746…614abacked No | 56c | 38.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 48c | 37.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…12f6backed No | 77c | 27.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd35…2bb6backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb9…56ccbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf54…7367backed No | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.