Middle East · resolved market
Sisi out as President of Egypt by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x005e09c01a35ac432674032beee7e1182f0303359753d9b1e6a327d598023234
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,225
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,577
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,225 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x717e…6498backed Yes | 1c | 5,041$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.97 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 10c | 4,015$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.23 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d3…3dd5backed Yes | 16c | 3,077$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 11c | 3,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…2cd1backed Yes | 11c | 2,063$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.22 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 1c | 1,921$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4b…19f1backed Yes | 11c | 1,503$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.23 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x909d…82c6backed Yes | 10c | 1,298$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 1,137$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8faf…2575backed Yes | 10c | 965.88$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 78c | 915.03$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.76 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 8c | 827$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.16 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…93ffbacked Yes | 11c | 556.71$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9905…1bc4backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcc…f59cbacked Yes | 9c | 473.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc217…abfbbacked Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 10c | 375.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1d…c4c8backed Yes | 21c | 361.4$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.74 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4b…4382backed Yes | 11c | 320.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x126f…7137backed Yes | 7c | 308.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 10c | 290$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…6788backed Yes | 18c | 272.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a6…84a9backed Yes | 11c | 238.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…77c7backed Yes | 11c | 228$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 12c | 214.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab60…b46cbacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 64c | 157.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8f…f9e9backed Yes | 16c | 126.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8167…3051backed Yes | 11c | 111$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d00…4adbbacked Yes | 11c | 103.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5d…ed2bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7313…cbbcbacked No | 36c | 77.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc0…e258backed Yes | 18c | 59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 46c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 78c | 53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.