TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Ye banned on X in February?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$135,047
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$135,167

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $135,047 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc212…a125backed Yes13c18,198$2,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,394.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc50d…085dbacked Yes25c3,748$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes12c3,043$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.132303.9%9 W · 221 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-78.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes8c2,708$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.61931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-40.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x29d4…bc07backed Yes57c2,700$1,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,528.41520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-41.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes5c2,594$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea83…5c8fbacked Yes11c2,365$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes6c2,200$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1311910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-76.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5300…0625backed Yes5c1,880$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed No58c1,593$923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.22040%8 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-29.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb65b…6c1bbacked Yes15c1,475$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Yes2c1,458$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.92138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-37.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99b6…a768backed Yes10c1,107$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.421711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-72.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xded5…d9cabacked Yes13c1,105$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.03333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5936…99c9backed Yes7c1,071$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9b6…61cebacked No40c1,002$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.49250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e1f…c855backed Yes12c1,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5df3…bbadbacked Yes10c999.98$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8588…de5ebacked Yes8c975.16$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes5c971.09$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.21010%1 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick5cpaid+64.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa68…94a7backed Yes9c899.98$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b6c…f6aabacked Yes2c780$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.723414.7%5 W · 29 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-58.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3eb…0829backed Yes10c732.3$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb49e…118fbacked Yes21c670$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7a0…6e95backed Yes21c530.72$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes14c487.21$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.318423.8%20 W · 64 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes6c430.84$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7499619.8%197 W · 799 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39c8…6e68backed Yes17c359.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3975…626abacked No70c353.15$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.741478.6%11 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick72cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes9c346$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.371330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick25cpaid-9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b60…4007backed Yes13c322.76$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.42630.8%8 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+46%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed No78c306.6$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.68250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-36.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed No76c300$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.1366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+56%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e34…7b66backed Yes14c296.93$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dde…94c3backed No61c296.73$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes7c294.22$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7679735.9%286 W · 511 L-34.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7fdf…3b40backed Yes17c293.84$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e72…743cbacked Yes11c284.82$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes9c259.2$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9252619.8%104 W · 422 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-24.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7e93…aaa4backed Yes14c256.07$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfffd…3c2bbacked Yes78c256.02$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes15c249.25$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5314314.7%21 W · 122 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-29.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70a8…9105backed Yes13c249$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.411315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba95…908fbacked Yes25c241.81$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4430%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d8…a0a6backed No56c240$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b04…b96bbacked Yes20c234.76$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes12c218.84$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.263611.1%4 W · 32 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick11cpaid+49.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01f7…645ebacked Yes41c215.93$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2139…4b34backed Yes13c214.85$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9127…6ff3backed Yes11c200$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212030%6 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-53%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.582711%91 W · 736 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb27…4db3backed Yes7c200$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-83.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ef2…1863backed Yes36c193.4$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.230%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a67…a78ebacked Yes9c163.23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes13c160$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa44e…4d45backed Yes65c158.8$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1043844.7%17 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked No70c156.5$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1512…68f3backed No52c155.63$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.981346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.18per pick28cpaid+84.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b92…046ebacked No80c150$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb250…078cbacked Yes18c138.89$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21cb…8014backed Yes16c130.42$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.65475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick37cpaid+88.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c0b…9076backed Yes40c125.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf714…8ff4backed No80c125.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.44250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-37.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes22c125.07$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272737%10 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+22.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c5f…ba1abacked Yes16c125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fb4…75c5backed Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94f9…5385backed Yes9c121$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked Yes12c117$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.044050%20 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0643…7b30backed No78c108.06$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.777317.8%13 W · 60 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-40.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9b9…c2b6backed No24c105$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.41060%6 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.29per pick31cpaid+213.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdeef…e421backed Yes21c100.26$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x052f…5ef8backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x013d…3e88backed No68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-70.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9998…e858backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf85b…5663backed No20c100$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+400%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xffb0…fa37backed No66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b6a…0b81backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb8e…962bbacked No64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No72c98.61$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.612100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+69.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcaa8…6c7cbacked Yes22c88.59$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x805a…0635backed Yes17c70.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1314218.3%26 W · 116 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid+124.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab8e…3d89backed No73c68.49$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.494710.6%5 W · 42 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-79.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbf9…e408backed Yes29c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-55%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked No36c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.82100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+119.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f10…cfdfbacked Yes42c35.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9691…8478backed No63c32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc6b…7892backed Yes32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78cf…dbc0backed No79c29.11$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bad…58d5backed No79c25.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f08…9409backed Yes45c24.29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41e4…c8abbacked No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.