Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel raid Greta Thunberg's ship by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd00cf19f6587486a1d2b39a947795693486b63dd737cf86da966d128befe03be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $327,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $308,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $327,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes | 2c | 127,320$2,898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,898.44 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 1c | 16,220$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.44 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 0c | 9,196$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 1c | 7,777$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.55 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 1c | 6,968$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.81 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 2c | 6,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked Yes | 3c | 5,410$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 3cpaid | +1,011.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2395…6154backed Yes | 1c | 5,166$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…5e5abacked Yes | 3c | 4,988$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 1c | 4,919$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.85 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 2c | 4,221$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.19 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…27ffbacked Yes | 2c | 3,769$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.51 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +141.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…913ebacked Yes | 6c | 3,540$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Yes | 1c | 3,152$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 3c | 3,100$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.55 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,816$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 2,289$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa074…f1c9backed Yes | 1c | 2,049$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74c4…787bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,833$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 6c | 1,800$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf701…5d7abacked Yes | 1c | 1,659$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef3…5fdabacked Yes | 2c | 1,403$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f56…0ff4backed Yes | 1c | 1,400$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe94…7bb6backed Yes | 2c | 1,282$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91b9…dcd8backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed Yes | 2c | 1,200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8618…df90backed Yes | 1c | 1,120$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c37…1ab5backed Yes | 2c | 1,118$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes | 10c | 1,064$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.1 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd39d…00bcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,014$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…ca68backed Yes | 8c | 928.06$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 6c | 900$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…0d06backed Yes | 2c | 889.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f51…e179backed Yes | 3c | 862.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 3c | 784$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 783.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed Yes | 3c | 750$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes | 3c | 750$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 2c | 671.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f81…96b8backed Yes | 3c | 625$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3a…f541backed Yes | 4c | 468.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6726…eabdbacked Yes | 5c | 418$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94e1…5e2bbacked Yes | 4c | 375.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf03b…756ebacked Yes | 4c | 250.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa7…37fbbacked Yes | 6c | 229.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…37ebbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 160$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…1a0cbacked Yes | 9c | 149.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd702…019cbacked Yes | 23c | 46.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed No | 76c | 23.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.