Token Launches · resolved market
Will Hailey Welch apologize by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x556586ca051cc8aac3aabc5a1c940acca2567359f684d07d08bc27cc9cd8bf27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,689
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2bca…2aa5backed Yes | 1c | 16,077$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 1c | 11,508$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 2c | 7,217$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.32 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +272.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 6c | 1,937$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.49 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3214…9a20backed Yes | 8c | 1,422$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ac…c2aabacked Yes | 14c | 1,366$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.12 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 4c | 929$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 57 | 5.3%3 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x986f…cac8backed Yes | 22c | 730.68$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed No | 78c | 725.79$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.16 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 3c | 596.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +281.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 421.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 21c | 413.76$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.18 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf20c…42f0backed Yes | 17c | 307.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fed…3068backed Yes | 10c | 171.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 17c | 146.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…0230backed No | 79c | 127.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf1…3cc2backed Yes | 15c | 124.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…6c83backed Yes | 17c | 115.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0809…d818backed Yes | 18c | 114.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 16c | 108.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2015…3fbfbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e3…ad70backed Yes | 17c | 92.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7e…a357backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc2…55d7backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…b972backed No | 79c | 36.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ba…97a1backed No | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2dd…bc0ebacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86a5…5ac2backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.