Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by between 1.13-1.17ºC in April 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x432e999b294ef21face82e32d86fd30c1d75b3a5050c5c5f55007a7c70aeb4e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,519
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,519 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1186…051bbacked No | 75c | 3,200$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.6 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 24c | 2,371$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.51 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 10c | 1,926$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,700$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…fdb8backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.67 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed Yes | 7c | 543$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 441.82$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.35 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 19c | 325.29$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.62 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x677a…3a5abacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 25c | 225$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed Yes | 6c | 199.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…baa2backed Yes | 22c | 195.07$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 96$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked No | 72c | 93$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x641e…aeb7backed Yes | 31c | 90.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 51c | 55.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +5.9wins | +0.20per pick | 31cpaid | +258.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 100 | 61%61 W · 39 L | +9.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.13-1.17ºC in April 2025?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.08-1.12ºC in April 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.08ºC in April 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.17ºC in April 2025?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.