Ukraine · resolved market
Will Ukraine join NATO before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98f8c3c5ce0af4b45b30b1323e132f1f430cea4df5de4089dade2e23082e1743
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $148,818
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $164,990
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $148,818 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8558…d6c9backed Yes | 3c | 17,950$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.81 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…f1a4backed Yes | 8c | 7,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 4c | 4,999$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.97 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed Yes | 5c | 3,502$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 5c | 3,502$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.1 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 3c | 2,714$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.73 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,666$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.41 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 2,297$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 65 | 1.5%1 W · 64 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…4eefbacked Yes | 2c | 2,141$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 2c | 1,668$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,659$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7851backed Yes | 6c | 1,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x711e…2091backed Yes | 2c | 1,429$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc979…4a98backed Yes | 3c | 1,200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 5c | 1,152$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.16 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd8…af91backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 6c | 999.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 5c | 999.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 2c | 896.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb943…777dbacked Yes | 3c | 715.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -47%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 3c | 602.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…fec9backed Yes | 4c | 517.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb96f…0222backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 3c | 348.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 3c | 333$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 7c | 284.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4751…3485backed Yes | 8c | 238.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…7925backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0313…67dbbacked Yes | 8c | 191.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.