Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Iran ceasefire by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0916a8da49aeeecca946d33ce561f1f1f432720d7d2b4b02bd5dbb54da24ea74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $285,858
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $239,450
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $285,858 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 6c | 13,365$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.62 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 6c | 12,141$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.21 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb9…d6c3backed Yes | 5c | 10,060$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 4c | 8,838$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.87 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa511…18a3backed Yes | 2c | 7,252$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.89 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 2c | 7,196$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.49 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551b…dfd1backed Yes | 4c | 6,941$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 4c | 6,129$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.12 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 5c | 6,037$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.64 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 7c | 5,671$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.21 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7504…9c69backed Yes | 3c | 5,279$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.93 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4824…ce01backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.81 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 4,779$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.31 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b33…535fbacked Yes | 2c | 4,345$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…2224backed Yes | 4c | 4,082$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x092f…243ebacked Yes | 5c | 4,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked Yes | 3c | 4,000$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 3cpaid | +1,011.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 2c | 3,871$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.12 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 1c | 3,870$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…0a49backed Yes | 9c | 2,686$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.53 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +6.1wins | +0.29per pick | 52cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Yes | 1c | 2,485$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 2c | 2,441$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.81 | 123 | 5.7%7 W · 116 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28da…b97dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,400$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…5c8fbacked Yes | 9c | 2,345$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.99 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +7.5wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 8c | 2,337$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.93 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,174$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…65eebacked Yes | 3c | 2,023$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Yes | 6c | 2,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.97 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3897…2d6dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,916$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac8…3efebacked Yes | 6c | 1,729$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc2…c9a0backed Yes | 3c | 1,710$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 8c | 1,625$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.83 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,523$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 3c | 1,436$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.21 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 7c | 1,234$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.38 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0deb…12c9backed Yes | 4c | 1,133$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 6c | 1,065$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8de…c07fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,055$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdec2…b04abacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +195.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 913.29$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a36…0d0dbacked Yes | 5c | 889.16$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 792.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.23 | 66 | 3%2 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -95.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 2c | 755.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fad…b0e6backed Yes | 3c | 730.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 10c | 722.05$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6959…5ab9backed Yes | 3c | 675.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 5c | 650$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 123 | 33.3%41 W · 82 L | +13.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 6c | 600.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd34a…8251backed Yes | 5c | 593.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8663…35e7backed Yes | 9c | 576.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e1…9eb2backed Yes | 4c | 553.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x837a…255ebacked Yes | 4c | 552.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c2…1183backed Yes | 5c | 552$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3838…799fbacked Yes | 3c | 527.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10bb…0067backed Yes | 5c | 509$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…f2b4backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc3…fa8ebacked Yes | 5c | 500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1099…903cbacked Yes | 5c | 500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…c09fbacked Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1937…d1ebbacked Yes | 6c | 499.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b6…48cabacked Yes | 4c | 476.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64cd…3518backed Yes | 5c | 454.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 4c | 454.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9491…2e3cbacked Yes | 6c | 426$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 153 | 24.8%38 W · 115 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…2b76backed Yes | 5c | 375$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfccf…185bbacked Yes | 3c | 342.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1666…ba7bbacked Yes | 6c | 317.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 315.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9df…d8bcbacked Yes | 6c | 310.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 308.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cff…9470backed Yes | 5c | 293.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 7c | 279.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc9…fb92backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…b2ffbacked Yes | 5c | 240.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +6.3wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 10c | 180.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | +7.4wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x25bd…e8e2backed Yes | 7c | 172.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e6…19f5backed Yes | 16c | 73.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 12cpaid | +115%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…3e65backed No | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +4.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.