Token Launches · resolved market
Will another country launch a memecoin in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0f9ef21765a39de0035b34439baabe1164c731d427e3a899814c02d1991009b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $114,431
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $125,742
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,431 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 20,252$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.01 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf74a…dad9backed Yes | 15c | 10,802$1,648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,647.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 2c | 6,045$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.38 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03e5…dd0fbacked Yes | 33c | 3,544$1,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,186.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe05a…5fddbacked Yes | 3c | 3,389$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6404…f250backed Yes | 34c | 2,923$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 9c | 2,805$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.82 | 57 | 5.3%3 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe62d…a9dabacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf06f…2ecabacked Yes | 23c | 2,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 80c | 1,793$1,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.68 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x486a…8a09backed Yes | 11c | 991.93$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 13c | 970.41$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.39 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 8c | 858.35$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.82 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Yes | 14c | 804.3$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.56 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97d9…04e2backed Yes | 35c | 767.99$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 15c | 712.74$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.28 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +13.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5df3…bbadbacked Yes | 16c | 649.94$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 24c | 615$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 596.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eae…f263backed Yes | 18c | 567.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 75c | 530.01$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.64 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 59cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d48…e9f1backed Yes | 19c | 528.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 514.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked No | 62c | 500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3397…fe08backed Yes | 13c | 456.01$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f6…1493backed No | 71c | 450.25$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 13c | 401.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 215 | 40.5%87 W · 128 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…53fabacked Yes | 16c | 400$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 32c | 336.39$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.58 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 17c | 317.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.67 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x650d…c383backed Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 21c | 311.85$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.49 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0913…cef5backed Yes | 18c | 311.27$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 65c | 275$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…fbdcbacked No | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…17d1backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad67…d6e0backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a3…5adabacked Yes | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed Yes | 44c | 112.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed No | 67c | 110$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x404a…575dbacked Yes | 20c | 101.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5aa…87acbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe10e…cfddbacked Yes | 20c | 99.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 169 | 27.8%47 W · 122 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca65…a45bbacked Yes | 12c | 93.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 80c | 85.96$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 66c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd20f…abc1backed Yes | 14c | 78.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 34c | 74.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +281.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b65…3fabbacked Yes | 15c | 73.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3a…0b34backed Yes | 46c | 73.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a84…e3a1backed Yes | 17c | 64.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…ba60backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 69c | 44.83$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 84 | 8.3%7 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…c27dbacked Yes | 34c | 44.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c7…de48backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcace…4fbdbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No | 78c | 38.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8d…d29ebacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 20.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.