Premier League · resolved market
Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67c1b75228b1b28cfdc6856033a19d3a43e74d88c6b6fa33263e9a1191a9c310
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $180,359
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $197,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $180,359 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 8c | 16,601$1,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,263.28 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1638…339bbacked No | 13c | 16,191$2,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,104.85 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fc…e783backed No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a2…c3debacked No | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4c…b281backed No | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…7517backed No | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7218…7e06backed No | 0c | 10,739$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda6b…4075backed No | 0c | 10,400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…9496backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3e…b656backed No | 15c | 8,260$1,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,239 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 15c | 7,612$1,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.74 | 680 | 26.3%179 W · 501 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 15c | 2,376$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.16 | 414 | 37.9%157 W · 257 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 14c | 1,318$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.51 | 296 | 43.6%129 W · 167 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc3…fce2backed No | 7c | 1,111$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.78 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x479c…bcbcbacked No | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 346 | 43.9%152 W · 194 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60a5…2da4backed No | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3804…9912backed No | 13c | 999.95$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…5d7bbacked No | 14c | 999.51$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2041…977fbacked No | 14c | 903.64$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa633…4d27backed No | 14c | 800$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 8c | 593.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.37 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 6c | 509.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…2427backed No | 6c | 503.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…b038backed No | 15c | 426.67$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30bc…2529backed No | 13c | 385.92$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.58 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked No | 13c | 233.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked No | 14c | 204.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…375abacked No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb65d…3757backed No | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed No | 12c | 158.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 17c | 147.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502a…f623backed No | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…d9f9backed No | 11c | 101.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5272…f0afbacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…7cf6backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…0050backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa06d…d337backed No | 14c | 92.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e0…f11cbacked No | 14c | 86.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +70%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bd…3e91backed No | 15c | 86.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e97…b339backed No | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2f…09a9backed No | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…2858backed No | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…07f5backed No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 109 | 32.1%35 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-27?this page
- Will Arsenal vs. Ipswich end in a draw?No won
- Will Ipswich win on 2024-12-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.