Weather · resolved market
Will the high in Washington DC be between 24-25°F on January 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1e42f705b3407581a099f78fbcfe55e0a9b75d4ed9760a3ca067553748bc7be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,654
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,117
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,654 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6ba…eea1backed Yes | 4c | 4,495$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ea…f801backed Yes | 1c | 2,587$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,708$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…070fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,419$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 11c | 1,400$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.6 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1338…755bbacked Yes | 19c | 174.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c6…f956backed Yes | 18c | 135.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2af3…3f13backed Yes | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5065…fdbbbacked Yes | 20c | 79.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 26c | 74.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x844b…0a51backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the high in Washington DC be between 24-25°F on January 20?this page
- Will the high in Washington DC be 19°F or below on January 20?No won
- Will the high in Washington DC be 30°F or higher on January 20?No won
- Will the high in Washington DC be between 20-21°F on January 20?No won
- Will the high in Washington DC be between 22-23°F on January 20?No won
- Will the high in Washington DC be between 26-27°F on January 20?No won
- Will the high in Washington DC be between 28-29°F on January 20?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.