Weather · resolved market
Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.30-1.34°C?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4221fc378c148f0320a06d636d1335418207c23df410a54f98897b02c9cb7a21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $618,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $426,931
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $618,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 0c | 71,012$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.05 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…251cbacked Yes | 1c | 44,138$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.03 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5827…69dcbacked Yes | 2c | 36,227$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.49 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00c…c2f4backed Yes | 8c | 24,741$1,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,910.48 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa54…f2aabacked Yes | 5c | 24,157$1,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,145.57 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes | 1c | 24,060$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.5 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eca…63a9backed Yes | 1c | 20,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 3c | 17,729$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.68 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25be…5cf9backed Yes | 1c | 15,710$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…2f6ebacked Yes | 2c | 12,737$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.55 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 2c | 11,415$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc6…84bdbacked Yes | 1c | 10,401$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.68 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…051bbacked Yes | 23c | 9,426$2,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,195.55 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…227dbacked Yes | 1c | 6,190$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.51 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 1c | 5,638$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x984e…3ef7backed Yes | 2c | 5,143$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…71d6backed Yes | 2c | 4,802$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 4,443$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.3 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…6b3ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,964$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.93 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 0c | 3,693$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 15c | 3,686$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.57 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 1c | 3,064$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca99…42ffbacked Yes | 4c | 3,000$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9106…a73cbacked Yes | 16c | 2,800$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.94 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 13c | 2,724$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.26 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 4c | 2,696$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.01 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc35…0ba7backed Yes | 24c | 2,460$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.67 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb660…195dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,260$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d07…0e42backed Yes | 2c | 2,027$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 26cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed Yes | 3c | 1,915$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,889$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.91 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 34c | 1,865$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.21 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9266…7562backed Yes | 19c | 1,703$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.49 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5890…1a49backed Yes | 1c | 1,676$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…d649backed Yes | 4c | 1,604$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b3…5098backed Yes | 9c | 1,448$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3687…b1d6backed Yes | 1c | 1,426$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd0…0af0backed Yes | 2c | 1,082$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed Yes | 2c | 1,019$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…ae3abacked Yes | 6c | 1,019$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.79 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfe…2330backed Yes | 10c | 1,002$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9a…cb4dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd0…5e51backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes | 2c | 944.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a4…4cc7backed Yes | 8c | 930$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46c9…7636backed Yes | 4c | 876.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e79…c9d4backed Yes | 1c | 869.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb54f…cd39backed Yes | 1c | 847.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397f…54e9backed Yes | 33c | 785.71$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.7 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -78%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…fdb8backed Yes | 17c | 748$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.28 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 31c | 648.53$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.5 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8a…e621backed No | 79c | 610.92$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.83 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 2c | 590.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 4c | 525.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3480…0735backed Yes | 6c | 510.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 6c | 499.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd041…73cbbacked Yes | 6c | 475.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 31cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b78…a88abacked Yes | 24c | 450$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.2 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 2c | 421.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x650d…c383backed Yes | 8c | 325.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 19c | 306.63$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes | 33c | 300$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…51afbacked Yes | 8c | 300$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d3…4e5ebacked Yes | 8c | 246.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3338…7624backed Yes | 8c | 243.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ec…eaacbacked Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 20c | 173.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36e…fc56backed Yes | 7c | 173.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 11c | 170.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9df7…3155backed Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…fd91backed Yes | 44c | 145$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b23…6dd3backed Yes | 9c | 134.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f8…43bbbacked Yes | 10c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50ff…9da1backed Yes | 14c | 104.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 33c | 102.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdde5…fd02backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…77c7backed Yes | 25c | 99.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 32c | 90.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…8cedbacked No | 69c | 89$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed No | 67c | 88.17$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb958…00a2backed No | 67c | 76.12$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…0c18backed Yes | 35c | 74.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad5…8f07backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…3a51backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed No | 68c | 15.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.30-1.34°C?this page
- Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.20-1.24°C?No won
- Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C?Yes won
- Will the December 2024 temperature increase be greater than 1.34°C?No won
- Will the December 2024 temperature increase be less than 1.20°C?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.