Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Mitch McConnell retire before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02e871634bc4f6c831fab66b00968d47d271c41a7f6b808d764b8559489af5bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,978
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,978 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4440…5f67backed Yes | 18c | 3,350$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.56 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 18c | 2,133$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.4 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 22c | 1,490$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 4c | 950.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c60…67c1backed No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 490.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed Yes | 11c | 421.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47b7…c5babacked Yes | 3c | 410.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 7c | 361.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 16c | 299.58$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.63 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27af…6ec8backed Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…4db3backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -91.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9de…0dc5backed Yes | 17c | 170.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 6c | 166.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c4…0d19backed Yes | 20c | 148.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…e07bbacked Yes | 15c | 132.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab0…42debacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd592…b119backed Yes | 70c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.