Weather · resolved market
Will Palisades wildfire spread to Santa Monica by Sunday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa534e23dc53b02c9b5a0079bce7d96f906edb24204d201d963afeb66156de051
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $159,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $166,199
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $159,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 171 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa27b…5d5cbacked Yes | 1c | 10,233$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.48 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f7…266fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,039$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…6972backed Yes | 1c | 7,316$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked No | 61c | 6,775$4,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,643.64 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d2…9eb7backed No | 74c | 4,477$3,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,153.88 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…e6dbbacked Yes | 31c | 4,000$1,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,240 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 12c | 3,820$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.88 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fea…d383backed Yes | 1c | 3,514$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 41c | 2,655$1,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,082.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bcc9backed No | 42c | 2,500$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,458.55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 9c | 2,222$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,022.02 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 9c | 2,222$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,022.01 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Yes | 27c | 2,178$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 14c | 2,058$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.08 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e00…ba33backed Yes | 2c | 1,885$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8933…1495backed No | 66c | 1,658$1,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.32 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 44c | 1,545$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.46 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7494…6e0bbacked No | 22c | 1,369$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,069.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +107%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 31c | 1,257$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.21 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 37c | 1,232$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.17 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…2f18backed Yes | 14c | 1,078$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1750…dce6backed Yes | 59c | 1,014$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.93 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 46c | 926.32$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.39 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed No | 30c | 911.27$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +130.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a6…b174backed Yes | 2c | 877.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 42c | 866.4$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.91 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf41…1587backed No | 63c | 837.94$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1cb…3accbacked Yes | 16c | 810.73$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -68%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 61c | 802.36$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.07 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 47c | 763.75$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.1 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5335…0b0fbacked Yes | 34c | 687.23$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…7226backed Yes | 60c | 672.15$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked No | 65c | 652.92$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.83 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x744a…64f4backed Yes | 3c | 588.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 15c | 550$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.02 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x531a…da3cbacked Yes | 75c | 550$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5632…748dbacked Yes | 3c | 530.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 57c | 507$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1545…e2b2backed Yes | 16c | 500$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 79c | 500$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 54cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe515…9458backed Yes | 75c | 500$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df3…bbadbacked No | 35c | 499.99$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +179.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…d889backed Yes | 36c | 499.99$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87f…9d9bbacked Yes | 20c | 498.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 65c | 487.84$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.1 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 78c | 477.03$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.95 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33cc…a0b6backed Yes | 72c | 462.54$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe03d…189abacked No | 46c | 442.09$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…a272backed No | 64c | 415.58$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +497.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 61c | 409.29$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.23 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd542…08abbacked Yes | 9c | 405.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 24c | 390$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.4 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 55c | 380$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.67 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 69c | 378.07$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.37 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a99…49acbacked Yes | 55c | 340.87$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f21…a750backed Yes | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 76c | 300$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked No | 23c | 300$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0647…8f61backed Yes | 17c | 297.71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd037…f5f8backed Yes | 9c | 272.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 54c | 254$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed No | 40c | 251.06$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.93 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed No | 61c | 250.32$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.82 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…82d2backed Yes | 16c | 237.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b36…52a2backed Yes | 57c | 234.4$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb82…2d99backed No | 47c | 232.71$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +111.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace2…9b56backed Yes | 56c | 221.63$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc1…954ebacked Yes | 59c | 220$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed No | 43c | 219.98$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.79 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a50…addcbacked Yes | 55c | 215.62$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed No | 35c | 215.38$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe38d…6c36backed No | 63c | 206.52$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.52 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecd3…6382backed Yes | 69c | 206.17$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4e…a139backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cf…3349backed No | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed No | 73c | 198.98$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e30…ef89backed No | 40c | 196.06$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +125%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd1…f21dbacked Yes | 54c | 188.6$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06b2…9c3cbacked Yes | 22c | 175.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 53c | 170.21$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.21 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8410…f0bfbacked No | 43c | 169.41$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3da…cc02backed Yes | 59c | 169.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafc9…46e0backed No | 42c | 169.05$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…8777backed Yes | 59c | 168.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae61…4e32backed Yes | 9c | 163.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 47c | 161.39$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.12 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 51c | 155.62$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.62 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdc…df7abacked No | 66c | 150.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 31c | 137.35$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9767…4dd6backed Yes | 9c | 131.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…e99fbacked No | 40c | 124$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +148.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0aa…55efbacked Yes | 59c | 121.78$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdea6…1550backed No | 47c | 117.67$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3313…55b8backed Yes | 17c | 116.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…e34dbacked Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b8a…a16cbacked Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 35c | 109.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1c…a762backed No | 37c | 108.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc067…9dbdbacked Yes | 65c | 107.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.