Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 May 25-31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25a6adaefe0088a82af88fd7bb6500408665176d3dca7f78a3059e52df7254ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $155,351
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $116,041
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $155,351 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x25ea…fa5fbacked Yes | 6c | 31,553$1,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,738.7 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 1c | 19,000$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 118 | 13.6%16 W · 102 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 4cpaid | +281.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…4524backed No | 68c | 14,391$9,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,587.27 | 162 | 53.7%87 W · 75 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,252$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa37c…0020backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed Yes | 4c | 5,649$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.56 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x054a…f218backed Yes | 2c | 5,375$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.98 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,181$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d56…a170backed Yes | 6c | 3,137$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25b…a295backed Yes | 2c | 2,671$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…d588backed Yes | 4c | 2,565$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…b8c9backed Yes | 4c | 2,070$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.47 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a1…2842backed Yes | 3c | 1,421$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 148 | 3.4%5 W · 143 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…0a45backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3a…ee52backed Yes | 3c | 738.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f34…7684backed Yes | 14c | 709$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.97 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…c27bbacked Yes | 3c | 672.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 99 | 4%4 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…b07fbacked Yes | 3c | 625$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d3…9147backed Yes | 3c | 617.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.25per pick | 29cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 550.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 292 | 2.1%6 W · 286 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…0ff2backed Yes | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 104 | 3.8%4 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf1…bb98backed No | 51c | 477.82$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.51 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 16c | 283.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.35 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefca…3650backed No | 67c | 249.99$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd0…a85bbacked No | 50c | 240$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.63 | 113 | 28.3%32 W · 81 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6685…0622backed No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba15…7579backed No | 60c | 134.59$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.86 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 84 | 70.2%59 W · 25 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…3ffebacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41a9…0d8bbacked No | 47c | 99.56$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.93 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908d…ee84backed No | 66c | 91.82$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6253…ce67backed Yes | 22c | 85.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x814f…aeecbacked Yes | 58c | 84.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf85…d62ebacked Yes | 22c | 55.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c6b4backed Yes | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0d…bc8dbacked No | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +76%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c6…9508backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +374.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c3…d0efbacked No | 78c | 40.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 84 | 67.9%57 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1944…c05dbacked No | 60c | 33.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +8.0wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf1…23a8backed No | 65c | 32.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…d0f8backed No | 61c | 25.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +7.3wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x01ab…e190backed No | 54c | 19.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 May 25-31?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 May 25-31?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 May 25-31?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 May 25-31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 May 25-31?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 May 25-31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.