Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 May 25-31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60aaff98c8869f72030500501c497223c62a65fec3e68d4b48d460fe7f5cdafa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,794
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,997
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,794 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 13c | 1,200$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5a…df23backed Yes | 34c | 1,061$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.18 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…4524backed Yes | 80c | 1,023$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.52 | 162 | 53.7%87 W · 75 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…8d6ebacked No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 73cpaid | -12%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 35c | 876.68$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.52 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 30c | 705.19$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.44 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84a1…2842backed No | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 148 | 3.4%5 W · 143 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c3…26b9backed No | 75c | 325$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1944…c05dbacked No | 58c | 300.87$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.93 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +8.0wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x41a9…0d8bbacked Yes | 43c | 259.89$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.4 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d56…a170backed Yes | 33c | 250$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba15…7579backed No | 75c | 242.95$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.41 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…c27bbacked No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 99 | 4%4 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a26…35d3backed No | 66c | 188.04$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcf…20aebacked No | 40c | 181.83$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.24 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd72…f09cbacked Yes | 61c | 165.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c3…d0efbacked Yes | 41c | 121.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.91 | 84 | 67.9%57 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…3ffebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd805…52c2backed No | 70c | 99.72$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe77c…f2bebacked Yes | 25c | 94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7af9…e4ebbacked Yes | 30c | 83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ab…e190backed No | 25c | 45.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 35c | 37.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x778a…6e0ebacked No | 69c | 32.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b5…326dbacked No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cf…91abbacked Yes | 44c | 27.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1297…1fb0backed No | 68c | 27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f34…7684backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 May 25-31?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 May 25-31?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 May 25-31?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 May 25-31?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 May 25-31?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 May 25-31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.