Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 May 25-31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bb36aedfd1d1dec0aa6284a0d10a1afa458902bed97849c366f7fea518438e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,006
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,006 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 9c | 3,985$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.45 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 18c | 3,590$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.24 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x090c…4deebacked Yes | 6c | 2,665$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.15 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x054a…f218backed Yes | 4c | 2,578$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.91 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d56…a170backed Yes | 17c | 2,400$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…8d6ebacked No | 76c | 1,515$1,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.12 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 73cpaid | -12%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 16c | 1,191$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.76 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…0a45backed Yes | 7c | 1,080$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.78 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…d588backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x001f…9cb5backed Yes | 6c | 676.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +165.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41a9…0d8bbacked Yes | 16c | 602.9$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.33 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 10c | 539$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.98 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67e4…5aeabacked Yes | 12c | 418.6$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3a…ee52backed Yes | 6c | 360.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…0ff2backed Yes | 8c | 335.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 104 | 3.8%4 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84a1…2842backed Yes | 6c | 328.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 148 | 3.4%5 W · 143 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fc…add8backed Yes | 19c | 250$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 25c | 202.84$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.62 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefca…3650backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2fdf…a9efbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…c27bbacked Yes | 8c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 99 | 4%4 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe52d…3728backed Yes | 8c | 140$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50d3…4b89backed Yes | 11c | 138.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc34…c663backed Yes | 10c | 137.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -67%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3806…5631backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 99.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5693…a473backed Yes | 20c | 97.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f93…e8c0backed No | 75c | 90.91$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb693…6ebcbacked Yes | 25c | 68.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe297…aae4backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -66%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 40.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 May 25-31?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 May 25-31?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 May 25-31?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 May 25-31?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 May 25-31?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 May 25-31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.