TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

New Diddy charges before November?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$57,268
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$57,181

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,268 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 173 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes6c3,501$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.661414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-71.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No61c1,911$1,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$738.715825.9%15 W · 43 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked No41c1,698$703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$994.861050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No65c1,517$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.251241.7%5 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick24cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Yes52c1,499$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.0140%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdf7a…7a7cbacked No74c1,222$909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked Yes18c999.98$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1856…1964backed No62c999.98$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa099…d81fbacked No63c892.58$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbff…84a8backed Yes35c781.14$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x62cc…9d0fbacked Yes73c727.46$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.05425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-53.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b58…c6a8backed Yes24c679$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc103…1138backed Yes49c626.68$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.8330%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f13…d602backed Yes38c600$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes45c596.91$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.992416.7%4 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc474…443ebacked Yes4c529.45$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes38c529.2$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe077…8ee3backed Yes8c515$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2803…0dd7backed Yes73c502$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca2e…40c1backed No63c494.73$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb14…bcc9backed No67c479$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.93450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d4d…b4e5backed Yes22c454.4$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8ba…a286backed Yes13c449.98$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.86450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7acf…f67bbacked Yes42c449.04$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6af5…7d3ebacked Yes28c417.59$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.4250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcee6…b3b7backed Yes41c402.01$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f80…7ee5backed Yes40c398.25$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No52c386.19$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.7914938.9%58 W · 91 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4d4…4fbebacked Yes40c335.23$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x126f…7137backed Yes33c300$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-49.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a3a…ee52backed Yes34c299.99$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+62%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4294…ee29backed No78c298.64$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.272100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+96.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7d4…8c0dbacked No70c297.59$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.93100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+124.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x981d…f112backed Yes50c279.51$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b22…7c5cbacked Yes39c250$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc385…5039backed Yes32c250$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xafaf…39a1backed Yes40c248.57$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb620…dd7abacked No50c242.32$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.76250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5643…5390backed Yes43c234.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-66.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb84f…92e3backed No61c213.11$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e1…a612backed Yes42c213.1$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c85…9e34backed No74c212.26$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.26263.8%1 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-94.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a9…48b9backed No5c211.77$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.18250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick3cpaid+900%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x509f…8fb7backed Yes47c211.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes37c200$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743228.1%9 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa276…115cbacked No60c200$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+45.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde3c…a5eabacked Yes45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c18…6574backed No55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98ac…182ebacked Yes45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc231…ff06backed No55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2201…4d72backed Yes45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9189…8f1cbacked No61c200$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3027…7447backed Yes39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac8f…dd8ebacked No61c200$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick71cpaid+44.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ad1…ab85backed Yes39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f5b…6759backed Yes38c200$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-48.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80c4…4b5fbacked No17c200$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1661100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+488.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ec2…00afbacked No60c200$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8501…53febacked Yes40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x653b…5e8fbacked Yes40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc63…1f15backed Yes45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83da…2f08backed No55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x969d…e39dbacked No55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcfc…0f18backed No59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b28…81ebbacked Yes41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc96e…b067backed Yes40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52ea…f79dbacked No60c200$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0e7…1022backed No63c200$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick36cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34b9…dae3backed Yes37c200$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x84c6…0c95backed No47c187.78$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.683100%3 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+218.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3168…6734backed Yes22c187.27$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf97b…d61dbacked Yes62c182.91$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.5830%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd06f…6dbabacked Yes55c182$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes14c173.06$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7924732%79 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-21.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc15d…88f6backed Yes62c161.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed No63c159.54$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.54250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3af0…2f0bbacked No63c158.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb231…99a4backed No79c157.17$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcefa…bef8backed Yes73c154.94$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcda1…d9adbacked Yes31c154.27$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc092…0cd9backed Yes39c153.85$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-39.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x576e…0995backed Yes52c153.57$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes39c150$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f7c…c873backed Yes23c146.44$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x551c…52b6backed Yes39c140.71$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60f3…8d6fbacked No63c120.16$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x49ce…b599backed Yes22c113.64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd49b…83efbacked Yes39c109.62$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5982…fa1ebacked No65c108.92$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x687e…a509backed Yes14c107.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc205…eec2backed Yes37c106.62$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.45666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed No45c105$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.05616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-62.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74c3…c1a8backed No63c104.49$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.43per pick41cpaid+242.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xad03…7803backed Yes39c102.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x84fe…25e2backed Yes46c102.17$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9deb…8108backed Yes49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf655…f5debacked Yes39c101.25$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb67…aa22backed No79c101.23$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.232100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+90.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x377f…9e02backed Yes39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…a821backed Yes67c100$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6720%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.