Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 February 2-8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47ebdba06b504e71b159d8ac531c51f68839cb8972315a6ddbbe1ec9bbe088ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $262,658
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $286,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $262,658 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf74b…95cbbacked Yes | 4c | 42,342$1,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,651.16 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes | 13c | 13,820$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800.05 | 142 | 13.4%19 W · 123 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 2c | 11,087$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.46 | 120 | 20%24 W · 96 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 10,701$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.52 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 4c | 7,476$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.99 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e9…3cc2backed Yes | 0c | 5,814$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…ac35backed No | 75c | 5,535$4,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,358.22 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9589…b816backed Yes | 20c | 5,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a65…a930backed No | 27c | 3,688$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,691.64 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…3248backed Yes | 7c | 3,144$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.11 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +111.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df2…01afbacked Yes | 3c | 2,500$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 84 | 11.9%10 W · 74 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | +599.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 17c | 2,177$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.04 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…b8c9backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf379…36c0backed Yes | 1c | 1,682$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 1,605$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.34 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe9…bb0abacked Yes | 2c | 1,600$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 167 | 29.3%49 W · 118 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x536e…0464backed Yes | 10c | 1,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd609…40f4backed Yes | 19c | 1,316$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc717…35f0backed Yes | 18c | 1,226$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.4 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2f…b8b2backed Yes | 12c | 1,214$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8212…5933backed Yes | 4c | 1,169$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +8.1wins | +0.22per pick | 21cpaid | +189.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe882…c502backed Yes | 18c | 1,128$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6c…c5b8backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 2cpaid | +1,039%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3a…ee52backed Yes | 14c | 999.53$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.93 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 889.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…8526backed Yes | 5c | 870.13$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 128 | 5.5%7 W · 121 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes | 5c | 859.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 106 | 7.5%8 W · 98 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae9e…cfe1backed No | 61c | 775.82$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.76 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 4c | 722.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf050…a037backed Yes | 3c | 700$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes | 4c | 693.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 137 | 5.8%8 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…8c53backed Yes | 3c | 636.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 6c | 600$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253b…0ae7backed Yes | 5c | 540.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +8.3wins | +0.12per pick | 4cpaid | +273.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a2…e317backed Yes | 4c | 500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f8…f072backed Yes | 2c | 469.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 6c | 400$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.72 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa996…99dabacked Yes | 35c | 400$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.6 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe442…7423backed Yes | 5c | 372.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfc…98e0backed Yes | 5c | 370$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d16…8ac4backed Yes | 54c | 370$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.7 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…eee7backed No | 29c | 345.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 26cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 20c | 306.8$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.05 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9aa…be83backed Yes | 5c | 283.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +170.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc43…1c86backed Yes | 9c | 275.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x989c…69f4backed No | 53c | 249.44$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.24 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -18.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff7…85d9backed Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 35c | 201.52$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.54 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc40b…e2bcbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b9…de55backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a00…980abacked Yes | 17c | 168.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 10c | 154.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f2…8a1fbacked Yes | 42c | 145.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.31 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d74…04f5backed Yes | 29c | 139.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9b…7fcdbacked Yes | 30c | 133.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 14cpaid | +529.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…8075backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e0…19ccbacked Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…3ffebacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked No | 78c | 99.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 75c | 90$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 143 | 7.7%11 W · 132 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e1…f503backed Yes | 43c | 78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 32cpaid | +148.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 36c | 74.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5da4…24dabacked Yes | 58c | 46.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked Yes | 65c | 46.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…2818backed Yes | 23c | 44.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…b8a7backed No | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +246.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd258…f3d2backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24a6…0e2dbacked No | 52c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbc…1f74backed No | 37c | 30.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8834…dc1bbacked Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 57c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 February 2-8?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,700 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,800 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,900 February 2-8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.