Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 February 2-8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7175c38eabd3f811384fb01aabac4930a21661cf47f59a3573dff654efa31952
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $139,787
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $144,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,787 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked Yes | 61c | 16,009$9,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,249.26 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54f2…4755backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed No | 56c | 9,231$5,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,183.72 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b09…015cbacked Yes | 20c | 7,334$1,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,842.81 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…ac35backed No | 68c | 6,757$4,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,620.13 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked No | 46c | 6,549$3,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,004.4 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe14b…1ad3backed No | 24c | 5,599$1,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,343.35 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed55…d480backed Yes | 14c | 5,052$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,345.12 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +4.5wins | +0.50per pick | 16cpaid | +338.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x536e…0464backed Yes | 45c | 4,000$1,781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,219 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3e…204cbacked Yes | 68c | 4,000$2,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,280 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2c…8acdbacked No | 31c | 4,000$1,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,241.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedad…17b2backed Yes | 60c | 3,951$2,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,592.47 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae9e…cfe1backed No | 45c | 3,476$1,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,557.78 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x530e…cc11backed Yes | 15c | 3,356$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,856.07 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +143.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed No | 62c | 2,282$1,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,419.77 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0d…26febacked No | 64c | 2,200$1,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,404.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x271f…4bfdbacked No | 32c | 2,070$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadb4…3214backed Yes | 24c | 2,003$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,516.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.38per pick | 20cpaid | +516.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ea…e2f2backed No | 31c | 1,997$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4964…2ba2backed No | 31c | 1,970$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…d094backed No | 32c | 1,930$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 31c | 1,447$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.66 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x06c8…d39cbacked Yes | 57c | 1,366$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.8 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x981f…8993backed Yes | 32c | 937.5$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf465…28e9backed Yes | 77c | 900$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 34c | 733.52$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.02 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d16…8ac4backed Yes | 70c | 671.44$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.8 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71cc…9144backed Yes | 64c | 640$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +773.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 31c | 625.72$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.72 | 136 | 24.3%33 W · 103 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes | 32c | 621.88$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.88 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 33c | 551.33$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.36 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72c4…ee6cbacked Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x989c…69f4backed No | 58c | 477.36$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.2 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -18.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…3248backed Yes | 36c | 394.13$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.86 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +111.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7675…365ebacked No | 22c | 300$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4864…3185backed Yes | 17c | 295.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +490.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 42c | 283.04$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.98 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 49c | 254.66$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…72b5backed Yes | 31c | 250.72$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f47…38c7backed Yes | 31c | 250$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 11cpaid | +464.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b41…060fbacked Yes | 31c | 250$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x226e…86ecbacked Yes | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e64…9b93backed Yes | 55c | 220$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d7…cf4bbacked Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7a…6b54backed Yes | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f26…1f12backed Yes | 20c | 193.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +148.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60f1…cb3ebacked Yes | 80c | 187.54$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.54 | 122 | 59.8%73 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4a…9de3backed Yes | 25c | 176.83$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.62 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked No | 14c | 175.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked Yes | 54c | 150$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 14c | 149.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081c…308bbacked Yes | 26c | 146.27$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.24 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9b…7fcdbacked Yes | 20c | 126.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.47 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 14cpaid | +529.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac1f…906ebacked Yes | 40c | 109.46$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.61 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.49per pick | 24cpaid | +220.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 84 | 70.2%59 W · 25 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +22.9wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x4896…fe47backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +8.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb08b…fbe9backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…56bcbacked No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5379…a031backed No | 30c | 76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…6bc7backed Yes | 60c | 74.05$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad1f…6c61backed Yes | 27c | 73.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.17 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50ce…e085backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf632…02aabacked No | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1505…a5e8backed No | 51c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde3f…8ce7backed No | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac12…bb91backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 65cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee1f…ffedbacked No | 40c | 42.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a8…a9d3backed Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfab5…690dbacked No | 59c | 37.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…26c9backed Yes | 78c | 35.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x257e…eddebacked Yes | 66c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee59backed Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…c5c6backed Yes | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaa…4083backed Yes | 80c | 22.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27e…8ae2backed Yes | 76c | 17.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 February 2-8?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,700 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,800 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,900 February 2-8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.