Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 February 2-8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e7a7055232491cbf94e2bd116e77258a589402e2487c4213b4dcc3155812300
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $140,031
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $136,086
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,031 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes | 5c | 17,410$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820 | 142 | 13.4%19 W · 123 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca5…8727backed Yes | 15c | 10,904$1,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,681.37 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +280.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed No | 66c | 8,924$5,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,068.84 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7152…faacbacked Yes | 0c | 8,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 94 | 0%0 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 6,625$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.67 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9b5ebacked Yes | 25c | 5,198$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe507…1258backed Yes | 12c | 4,999$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.87 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc903…b175backed Yes | 16c | 4,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…2530backed Yes | 17c | 3,045$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.21 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf74b…95cbbacked Yes | 4c | 3,021$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.14 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7334…81dabacked Yes | 53c | 3,000$1,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,578 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedad…17b2backed Yes | 36c | 2,085$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.74 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe9…bb0abacked Yes | 8c | 2,000$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 167 | 29.3%49 W · 118 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 28c | 1,667$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.94 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +7.8wins | +0.22per pick | 23cpaid | +177.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4c0c…c312backed Yes | 3c | 1,593$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc717…35f0backed Yes | 17c | 1,354$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.99 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 1,300$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.39 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 14c | 1,053$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.15 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 6c | 1,013$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.14 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9822…c7d0backed Yes | 25c | 787.89$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 4c | 762.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc006…1c7abacked Yes | 47c | 718.43$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.38 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 4c | 713.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…8526backed Yes | 5c | 700$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 128 | 5.5%7 W · 121 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes | 5c | 631.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 137 | 5.8%8 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x981f…8993backed Yes | 14c | 629.92$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.87 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9aa…be83backed Yes | 16c | 609.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +170.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 7c | 600$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 106 | 7.5%8 W · 98 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…42eebacked Yes | 5c | 549.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +110.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x089e…45e6backed Yes | 14c | 500$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 7c | 475.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 422.55$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.42 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f05…8a73backed Yes | 24c | 409.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +165.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081c…308bbacked Yes | 8c | 357.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x298b…066fbacked Yes | 12c | 300$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +641.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 278.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c40…3175backed Yes | 17c | 249.7$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c8…a016backed Yes | 14c | 234.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63aa…8b6fbacked Yes | 23c | 205.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa46…25f4backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +61%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…361abacked Yes | 38c | 191.43$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.17 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 12c | 155.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f6…f00abacked Yes | 32c | 155.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x575b…1825backed No | 68c | 155.08$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac1f…906ebacked Yes | 10c | 143.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.49per pick | 24cpaid | +220.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes | 18c | 103.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb634…5714backed Yes | 20c | 101.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 17c | 99.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e79…0d74backed Yes | 38c | 80.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dde…cf61backed Yes | 47c | 53.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffb5…92c3backed No | 74c | 50.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5379…a031backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 February 2-8?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,700 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,800 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,900 February 2-8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.