Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 February 2-8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8991509175e91bb173ebc7b59b3614d16e821a6150e52933ab7821b1c8cb5e74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,826
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $110,802
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,826 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 4c | 16,603$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.65 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…ac35backed No | 68c | 10,681$7,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,468.33 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes | 26c | 8,836$2,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,260 | 142 | 13.4%19 W · 123 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb4…3214backed Yes | 33c | 5,000$1,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,656.77 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.38per pick | 20cpaid | +516.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbca5…8727backed Yes | 5c | 3,856$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.8 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +280.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc891…a35ebacked Yes | 41c | 3,000$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,230 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 20cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc717…35f0backed Yes | 13c | 1,600$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,440$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…8d6ebacked No | 76c | 1,319$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.09 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 73cpaid | -12%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,098$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 1,024$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.62 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6c…c5b8backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 2cpaid | +1,039%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked No | 76c | 862.4$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.14 | 84 | 70.2%59 W · 25 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 11c | 796.97$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.14 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes | 4c | 590.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 137 | 5.8%8 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 3c | 567.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes | 5c | 544.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 106 | 7.5%8 W · 98 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 143 | 7.7%11 W · 132 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…8526backed Yes | 3c | 400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 128 | 5.5%7 W · 121 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb60e…3574backed No | 73c | 400$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.77 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 22c | 386.82$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 7c | 321.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 41c | 304.89$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.96 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…65febacked Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae9e…cfe1backed No | 70c | 286.93$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.8 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 62c | 273.45$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.61 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 261.72$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.75 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x18f4…c58fbacked No | 79c | 251.9$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.9 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 120 | 20%24 W · 96 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34d6…df14backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc43…1c86backed Yes | 11c | 188.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d74…04f5backed Yes | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfcc…a1f7backed Yes | 29c | 163.45$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed Yes | 40c | 127.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 69c | 124$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7814…8713backed Yes | 15c | 118.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +204.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa29b…a0b8backed Yes | 49c | 101.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…394fbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47b0…3b60backed Yes | 27c | 72.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ae…f5b2backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad1f…6c61backed Yes | 39c | 51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 76c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5379…a031backed Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x989c…69f4backed No | 80c | 29.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -18.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 February 2-8?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 February 2-8?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,700 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,800 February 2-8?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,900 February 2-8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.